Us Politics · resolved market
Trump signs bill cutting Medicare before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458ae922e44cec20b0107ebfd8baffc0bdb1945b75634abe218fae391b54bbde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ac2…9a73backed Yes | 22c | 36,560$8,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,043.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…ef68backed No | 78c | 36,560$28,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,043.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,227$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.4 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 14c | 1,146$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 12c | 990$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 16c | 884.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.63 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 873.27$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.32 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 767.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 8c | 762.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 15c | 736.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 11c | 733$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 6c | 678.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.6 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 69c | 443.98$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 70c | 371.1$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 16c | 316.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…5e71backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 12c | 145.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 119.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 12c | 114.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 101.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 14c | 81.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…78afbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 66.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…512abacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 75c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.