TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will the US sanction Russia before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,934 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe85e…775fbacked No2c5,164$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2870%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No1c4,778$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes79c3,376$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.233164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed No6c2,896$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.643215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No75c2,685$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.132272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No58c2,400$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.9826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes70c2,346$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.963839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.981225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf485…53ccbacked No20c1,993$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No9c1,951$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.753745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked No31c1,503$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No68c1,499$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.362544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes46c1,497$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.727821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No11c1,392$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0810812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No68c1,350$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69cf…e75cbacked Yes25c1,262$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes19c1,224$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.786933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes32c864.74$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.9611040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No72c838.14$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60014147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes29c820.29$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.759734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No26c765.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes24c749.6$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.41905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes39c735.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.152119%4 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed No76c608.5$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes56c572.91$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2529037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed Yes22c536.1$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.641553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c505.97$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.4341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No23c490.55$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.43729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x579a…46d5backed Yes38c489.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+124.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked No79c447.09$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No55c406.75$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.048936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460b…aeddbacked No75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked No23c365.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes46c362.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes30c356$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.722924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb05…12f8backed Yes24c338.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.891973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+84%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x84f7…b90abacked Yes23c313.04$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+158.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c47…174bbacked No50c260.29$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed No80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes22c250$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed No70c250$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No19c236$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.442330.4%7 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No9c222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes43c222$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.543119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes27c218$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes22c217.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.156336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1815…15dbbacked No13c213.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+54%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes58c210.29$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No40c192.9$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.161758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb2…8928backed Yes24c186.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…b534backed No75c169.33$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c2…82cfbacked Yes42c165.3$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c153.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1144551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc819…6d47backed No75c142.33$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes27c137.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.04728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes22c122.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+132.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes80c122$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.632454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes53c119.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.72236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x783e…0d56backed No79c115$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes22c113.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7311530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No21c109.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes26c102.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.285550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cb…b053backed Yes21c101.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.041735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c101.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8642…68d9backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid+78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf587…1419backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812450%12 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes80c99.7$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.22352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes19c96.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.73724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed Yes57c96.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.221520%3 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed Yes60c92.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.722085%17 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No63c89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.669341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes77c88$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6812830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No68c86.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.092931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c84.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.515327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb6…49c9backed Yes19c78.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes40c78.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c77.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c4…a40abacked Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6522…5d4fbacked No58c64.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed No76c62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-84.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No65c61.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402181%17 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick63cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.87736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed Yes18c57.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.241040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…1af7backed No32c50.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…ca01backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+215.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf810…e877backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+178.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec99…962fbacked No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.560%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.