Ukraine · resolved market
Trump admin announces resumption of military aid to Ukraine in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f594344cbf212feb32efe684d9600ae5b71845ef338f200320290bc37a9870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe645…2ed2backed No | 10c | 4,260$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…5e71backed No | 11c | 648$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 28c | 280$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked No | 17c | 279.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 12c | 199.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…1ad2backed No | 12c | 163.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 11c | 158.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…addebacked No | 25c | 59.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.