TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,371,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,671,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,371,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes8c112,380$9,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,238.941915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes13c99,419$13,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,355.341931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2db…d5b7backed Yes2c81,506$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.33633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf23d…b77abacked Yes5c59,787$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe647…f838backed Yes13c30,538$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9718…819ebacked Yes3c28,845$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes5c25,281$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.480%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…0f4ebacked Yes12c24,292$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d4c…51fdbacked Yes16c21,620$3,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c11,000$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.52611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe661…b59dbacked Yes16c10,574$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d1…a1cebacked Yes14c10,228$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004517.8%8 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes14c8,529$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes1c7,791$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.07355.7%2 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…d128backed Yes3c6,822$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c6,394$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.875315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ab…e832backed Yes14c5,598$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes15c5,395$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.95933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c2…ca7cbacked Yes4c5,158$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes15c5,014$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes4c5,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.186119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f1…5069backed Yes11c5,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11cf…45b1backed Yes12c4,830$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes10c4,798$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.61100%0 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbef9…204fbacked Yes2c4,370$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,755$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.822939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2575…d515backed Yes8c3,448$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes2c3,359$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.381711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes5c3,217$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.936622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…28d5backed Yes16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3b…5a88backed Yes14c2,856$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dc…2216backed Yes2c2,828$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes13c2,800$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c2,601$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.766883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes1c2,483$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179a…88d8backed Yes15c2,183$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd01…b0f4backed Yes2c1,872$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c1,800$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes3c1,780$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe579…28a7backed Yes15c1,702$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes9c1,525$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.52737%10 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes13c1,332$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…ae05backed Yes15c1,277$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes1c1,258$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332931%9 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes8c1,141$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.352619.2%5 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb71…5fd7backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c1,061$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3645723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes13c1,044$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes15c1,000$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.742123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf62c…f445backed Yes13c958.33$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0616…219ebacked Yes14c863.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes11c817.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.897125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes6c788$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.282030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes14c773.42$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2827828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes7c766.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes3c756.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes5c751.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.758328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe48a…67dabacked Yes12c728.08$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed Yes14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes3c674$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.912927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb311…4e44backed Yes3c666.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b5f…4b4cbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes8c666$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.285123.5%12 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec2a…81c1backed Yes2c616.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103112.9%4 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1e…641fbacked Yes2c609.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c589.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…4ab0backed Yes14c571.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes10c550$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.51131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes10c530$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.71631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f2…9b39backed Yes4c527.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39f9…06aebacked Yes4c526.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c523.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.484766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes13c499.95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.991030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes13c450$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-61.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes18c448.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80fe…5659backed Yes16c437.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffc0…64eebacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes12c400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.22737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4526…4693backed Yes5c392.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e63…8bf7backed Yes13c384.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…37f4backed Yes14c384.29$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes11c377.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes13c362.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6815237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8428…25e4backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0c…c7d4backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50f…60c0backed Yes14c354.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e31…2840backed Yes4c345$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e36…339cbacked Yes15c340$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf369…acb6backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0007…434ebacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…6e36backed Yes4c331$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c6…7fb1backed Yes4c327.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes14c313.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.952250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+71.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59a2…1e5dbacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c55…f3cbbacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.