TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$586,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$583,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,649 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c1…ebc1backed No3c39,834$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.612630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No10c37,000$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,56011848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No0c28,572$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1421935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No72c19,414$14,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,025.9416943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No2c17,285$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.254634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No72c15,476$11,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,068.215646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04fa…6c06backed Yes18c13,257$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,935.081020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacc…e985backed Yes17c11,744$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,747.741020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No0c10,040$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.126028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0093…b688backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No5c8,927$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.326229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No7c8,827$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.433859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes18c8,000$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,554.643727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes26c7,753$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,735.294247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed No27c6,642$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.011315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-79.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes25c6,500$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.498143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No7c6,243$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.544814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No69c6,028$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,142.813542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes31c5,963$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,101.191827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes28c5,954$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,295.287354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No72c5,152$3,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,723.45756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf490…727cbacked Yes33c5,036$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed Yes19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0501450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No74c4,888$3,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.2213540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No76c4,467$3,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,396.034052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No21c4,011$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.196442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes31c3,950$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.155916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No72c3,913$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.0937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86a6…3674backed No35c3,719$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1498…1caebacked Yes31c3,115$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No3c3,095$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.688640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed No15c3,093$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.331250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes61c2,893$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.0921634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No73c2,865$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.6620446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ca…b890backed Yes35c2,564$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No5c2,547$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.624429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x361f…0fc2backed Yes20c2,473$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.081118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed No31c2,444$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b2…bfd6backed Yes25c2,362$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b2…bd2cbacked Yes21c2,350$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No8c2,237$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5521022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No14c2,192$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.464729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed No80c2,053$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf467…d6febacked No25c2,004$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691b…fce0backed No79c2,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e71…ad34backed No76c1,968$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked Yes21c1,965$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.441323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b3…7469backed Yes21c1,905$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes23c1,850$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.8917633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes15c1,828$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.651330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No70c1,755$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.887227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e4…732fbacked No15c1,740$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.34616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No10c1,677$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.72045%9 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de8…fc01backed Yes22c1,633$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe149…9c7ebacked Yes25c1,633$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes24c1,594$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.513441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes20c1,589$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.912040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes23c1,566$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.33751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes29c1,565$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.9717225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c96…df45backed Yes33c1,515$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+245.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes22c1,500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.0528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No70c1,500$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.422142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6b…29fdbacked Yes34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb16e…e2d6backed No67c1,490$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.29520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes34c1,455$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.0713537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes22c1,417$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.346051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No76c1,411$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.7135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes19c1,321$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.05560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+64.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No6c1,300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No78c1,202$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.9415332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No73c1,202$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.8312531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x995d…bd40backed Yes17c1,144$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed Yes22c1,138$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No6c1,084$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0617713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes25c1,053$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.7511347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69da…f98cbacked Yes19c1,053$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.631421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes18c1,025$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52be…a121backed Yes17c1,000$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes27c996.18$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.195437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e38…61b5backed Yes21c952.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.381625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked No27c947.83$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.921533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes26c920$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.52524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No4c914.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a8a…e6b5backed Yes22c909.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.09450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+118.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed No67c850$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5692653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes23c831.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No8c822$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.219557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x00b4…75dbbacked Yes24c816.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No70c807$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.615238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x01c8…a2a0backed Yes23c803.92$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+181.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes21c800$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6343023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+72.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes24c791.96$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No71c756.64$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.563732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213a…57f2backed No70c714.87$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No34c700$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24114940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888e…e156backed No79c660$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f4b…42f4backed Yes21c659$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249c…06e3backed No78c641$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes34c633.91$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.457638.2%29 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.