TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$802,135
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$874,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $802,135 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 358 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes21c36,000$7,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,420333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes5c27,228$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes22c16,874$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4147…4fbfbacked No67c16,331$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,330.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c15,231$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.223859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes49c14,563$7,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,076.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No63c12,366$7,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,563.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cca…1a17backed Yes2c11,119$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes6c9,736$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.48210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No75c8,250$6,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.53953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes3c8,242$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.554351.2%22 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes20c7,752$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.411020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes16c7,096$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.623125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes13c6,969$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.941421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes4c6,950$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.412245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No55c6,696$3,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.392356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+78.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes22c6,388$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.964522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes4c6,132$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a66…9bc0backed Yes3c5,901$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes4c5,432$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.123033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe837…739fbacked Yes4c5,019$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d2…0357backed Yes50c5,004$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No50c4,962$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.652619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddf4…16fbbacked Yes6c4,947$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b47…2f60backed No50c4,873$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7526…8c95backed Yes8c4,772$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Yes7c4,754$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes18c4,499$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8291822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-47.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0c1…648dbacked Yes17c4,263$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No50c4,166$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.9713525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24d2…1472backed Yes4c4,165$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.81315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No39c3,654$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.654136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No64c3,354$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.655851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes3c3,335$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.72245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No76c3,094$2,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.1823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes24c3,074$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.6617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes14c3,053$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No43c3,036$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.113212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae4…6974backed Yes37c2,804$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No59c2,789$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.474045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes23c2,713$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.541625%4 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2764…a2a8backed Yes23c2,520$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes6c2,462$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.147432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes7c2,434$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe86f…33ecbacked Yes5c2,257$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed Yes2c2,164$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36e…fc56backed Yes13c2,150$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.35120%0 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes16c1,937$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.811936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes13c1,935$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.614216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes27c1,837$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.770%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes30c1,809$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5408030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked Yes12c1,792$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes33c1,707$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.198741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes42c1,700$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab8…2a81backed Yes61c1,626$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes19c1,560$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.151118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No33c1,494$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.021861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes4c1,491$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.921637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0983…7adbbacked Yes66c1,480$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes8c1,380$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2fd…0cc8backed Yes44c1,365$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe637…7fbdbacked Yes76c1,294$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.9350%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x400f…d4e5backed Yes40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb85…cf93backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No63c1,233$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.276838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…fe90backed Yes52c1,224$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes39c1,223$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.9735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes9c1,220$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.218914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes29c1,202$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.58911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf214…a9e5backed No51c1,181$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.441154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+86.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes10c1,166$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cad…cf3fbacked Yes9c1,158$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2d…073ebacked Yes23c1,146$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes21c1,141$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.61735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d96…78afbacked Yes3c1,123$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc98…f205backed Yes8c1,116$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d7…512abacked Yes55c1,101$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.142133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa4…8e0bbacked Yes3c1,101$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes37c1,100$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No58c1,084$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.1415124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c1,084$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.868331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes76c1,078$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes19c1,050$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.771118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-71.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No45c1,030$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.536431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes6c1,009$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes20c1,002$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes8c1,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x895e…d18dbacked Yes29c965.52$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes2c959.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8211940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes59c930$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.533043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c919.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.272154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x269a…0837backed No35c903.13$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.131656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes3c893.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked No66c887.98$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No70c859.99$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.53237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes28c850.61$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2381735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d82…a1eebacked No61c814.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes11c794.67$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.414040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes14c767.11$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8417021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0384…d4efbacked Yes27c750.31$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0740%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.