TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Dogecoin reach $0.45 before December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,268 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8d2…d6d2backed No22c2,803$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee5…fa1bbacked Yes78c2,500$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee3…a29fbacked No15c2,450$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed Yes40c2,287$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf088…d29ebacked Yes73c1,967$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes80c1,593$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…b767backed No39c1,578$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes51c1,504$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ae…481fbacked No47c1,327$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes79c1,264$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.25825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e6c…72fcbacked No56c1,246$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7fc…fd7ebacked No48c1,065$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.27580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes41c999.99$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5904017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Yes50c957.73$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.31520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff3…88c8backed No49c924.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf338…14f2backed Yes54c839.48$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes66c820.48$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.822450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa784…c046backed No3c760$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…6c95backed No7c754.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccf…c90abacked No57c693.69$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.141172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No59c541.23$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x970c…e248backed No2c525$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e0…f7b5backed Yes61c500$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…3e18backed Yes52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No31c470.88$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.233329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b7…d898backed Yes69c433.89$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes49c407.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.692119%4 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+115.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…865dbacked No64c389.66$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca5…fb42backed No52c381.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes66c350$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.53174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5512…5941backed No38c320.78$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes43c278.95$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes41c266.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.61520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes43c266.69$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.011827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes77c260.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes43c259.87$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.191533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+113.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9764…73a0backed No16c258.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ad…683cbacked No28c249.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No19c249.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c43…84fcbacked No73c243.2$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8cb…945cbacked No62c240.13$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes56c239.52$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2621240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0384…d4efbacked No16c210.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a71…4dd2backed No38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d96…039cbacked No18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No20c195.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ed…5707backed No42c190.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x715b…3ee1backed Yes61c187$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes34c178.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.785332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc6…b817backed No40c174.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15f…650abacked Yes75c166.41$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…8ae4backed No25c160.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc222…3d96backed Yes66c151.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No19c148.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0411833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes53c141.44$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9790…85d7backed Yes45c136$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f8…0e09backed No73c132.05$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x383f…7360backed No48c123.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…0954backed No33c123.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec6…4f34backed No48c123.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes49c122.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed No47c121.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9377…aed8backed Yes51c121.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90af…fe61backed No41c121.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4e…2aeebacked No22c119.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+47.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes76c116.62$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4613424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7a9…66dabacked Yes61c115.16$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8075…689bbacked No46c109.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1918…7b6fbacked Yes46c108.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xede7…0b30backed Yes56c107.03$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.03825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed No18c107$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1912…3a08backed Yes51c104$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+195.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5243…1aa6backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+61%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed No16c97.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes51c96.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes46c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Yes73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…62d9backed Yes80c88.75$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…ccf4backed No25c88.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7fe…a38fbacked Yes75c86.93$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No42c86.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.584316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ef…f23cbacked No19c84.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ee…957dbacked Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes71c75.53$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…a888backed Yes33c75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+95.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1543…79c8backed No48c73.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes55c72.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…474bbacked Yes32c72.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+143.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes70c71.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked No36c69.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes26c61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+113%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb271…8bdbbacked Yes79c60.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.