TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes1c26,095$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.161010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-85.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c15,208$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.06458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c6…2ef0backed Yes0c9,934$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c6,979$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.89456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc10f…503cbacked Yes4c6,583$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5883…a3a9backed Yes41c5,500$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccf…c90abacked No46c5,401$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.671172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe31…2c7abacked Yes20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes65c3,685$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No60c2,497$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-58.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…8a40backed No33c1,795$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed Yes30c1,658$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No59c1,610$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No22c1,500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1701154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6f…1d9fbacked Yes1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12b…a598backed Yes3c1,334$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…1bfdbacked Yes37c1,332$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.9660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0129…53cebacked No27c1,323$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+88.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes26c1,236$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.854017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed No58c1,133$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3774…c42cbacked Yes3c1,050$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25b7…0f9bbacked No78c900$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf183…c3bfbacked No64c777.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes25c764.75$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6c…72fcbacked No69c745$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.34560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No74c731.22$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.28450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af5…da0abacked Yes6c710.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0983…7adbbacked Yes17c659.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc385…5039backed Yes5c617$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73af…4fc0backed Yes60c576.73$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd359…d361backed Yes68c575.15$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc888…838bbacked Yes5c553.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5094…5df7backed No55c540.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a86…b39ebacked No64c529.4$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.924100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes73c501.58$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.121010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-80.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b52…2c31backed No29c500.72$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab10…04d9backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02dc…dc31backed Yes62c500$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No44c499.96$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c42…6e1fbacked No39c462.11$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8717…3e18backed Yes21c448.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5be…a613backed Yes34c427.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed No46c405$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes30c394.83$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38e…7d84backed No52c385$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…a36dbacked No79c381.82$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x970c…e248backed Yes36c379.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.15128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed1…dc95backed No70c356.3$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c347.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4333329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…d345backed Yes6c340.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No28c333$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No66c325.4$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes37c322.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202119%4 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e0…f7b5backed Yes46c300$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24dc…560bbacked Yes17c290.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked No24c285$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+320.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb561…86f8backed No77c272.32$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7fc…fd7ebacked No40c248.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed No36c247.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes26c231.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ae…481fbacked No57c215.61$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes64c213.56$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca5…fb42backed No75c212.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc174…6941backed No38c209.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes38c208.68$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+113.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d5…682bbacked Yes39c204.1$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb4…ee54backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4e…2aeebacked No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+47.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74c8…0b36backed Yes48c191.06$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Yes42c186.87$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…5acfbacked No59c181.53$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Yes80c181.1$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd430…d683backed Yes56c178.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9790…85d7backed Yes52c175.8$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No59c175.57$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5512…5941backed No60c173.54$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes22c165.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.39922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-44.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes41c165.24$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed No28c160.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b7…9360backed No34c160.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+62%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No59c158.14$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+175.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked No74c153.66$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked No77c146$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5230…e16cbacked No34c145$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x602b…c2c0backed No69c144.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked No59c138.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c136.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5721240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce50…123bbacked Yes74c134.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes34c131$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.171827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24f…61dabacked Yes80c130$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe830…8bedbacked Yes34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Yes15c117$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc895…a981backed No55c116.89$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b3…301dbacked Yes45c109.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xede7…0b30backed Yes37c109.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f1…02bbbacked No71c103.42$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90af…fe61backed No58c103.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.