Token Launches · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $1 before December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8661908fb0e5913d016f82ef529dc3ef331a24e37ef88cdddf1d0d4b3bb98fa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 21,136$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b3a6backed Yes | 3c | 19,410$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 3c | 17,601$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…d277backed Yes | 10c | 17,453$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 11,069$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…dc31backed Yes | 6c | 8,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…4fc0backed Yes | 5c | 6,153$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869d…b6babacked Yes | 4c | 5,314$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 5,068$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f082backed Yes | 6c | 4,516$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…9ef9backed Yes | 6c | 2,456$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 9c | 2,170$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 6c | 2,100$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,085$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 4c | 1,964$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,871$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 14c | 1,814$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,814$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…d683backed Yes | 3c | 1,587$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…c42cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,414$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496c…7220backed Yes | 9c | 1,343$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,271$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…35fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc447…f819backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…f7b5backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…0491backed Yes | 1c | 929.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 4c | 810.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd87…848fbacked Yes | 2c | 798.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…062ebacked Yes | 7c | 750.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…66dabacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 630.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…3c5cbacked Yes | 8c | 628.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…29f5backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…054fbacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e58…3ababacked Yes | 3c | 484.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…fdbbbacked Yes | 12c | 392.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 7c | 370.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 8c | 301.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65db…0bc8backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…1a93backed Yes | 10c | 200.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd406…b732backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…e56fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed Yes | 9c | 175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…bc2dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…1d13backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +503.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked Yes | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1f…ee2ebacked Yes | 12c | 120.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…024bbacked Yes | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…3e64backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $1 before December?this page
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.45 before December?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.55 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.80 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.90 before December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.