Token Launches · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce5bba313a044d0ba7947f8020af45808f2e387f22753ca6b861e5a32e4efa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 11c | 4,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…3e18backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…35fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,688$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,310$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 1,116$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…3e1abacked Yes | 9c | 1,112$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes | 46c | 1,089$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…d29ebacked Yes | 11c | 941.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed No | 59c | 840.45$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 63c | 526.69$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 13c | 502.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…1bfdbacked Yes | 9c | 452.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked No | 72c | 407.02$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 12c | 312.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…4a57backed No | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…cf58backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 51c | 202.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 76c | 193.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…2e4ebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe830…8bedbacked Yes | 29c | 191.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 23c | 187.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked No | 72c | 173.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…5da7backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…02b9backed No | 76c | 130.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…e56fbacked Yes | 11c | 129.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…29f5backed Yes | 42c | 120.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 112.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…3f44backed Yes | 19c | 105.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +270.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…ccf4backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…bec5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…87ebbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2252…f7f4backed Yes | 26c | 42.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed No | 76c | 34.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 47c | 31.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 31.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…2fe0backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e70…2f06backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed No | 77c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…14f2backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December?this page
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.45 before December?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.55 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.80 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.90 before December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $1 before December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.