TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,491 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc445…d6aebacked Yes11c4,500$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…3e18backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…35fbbacked Yes9c1,688$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,310$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes6c1,116$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.931827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b07…3e1abacked Yes9c1,112$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes46c1,089$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf088…d29ebacked Yes11c941.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32c…0c09backed No59c840.45$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-85.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No63c526.69$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.831457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x970c…e248backed Yes13c502.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.25128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…1bfdbacked Yes9c452.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb4e…2aeebacked No72c407.02$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.84875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+47.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.54017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes12c312.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…4a57backed No74c270$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21580%12 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf877…cf58backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No51c202.71$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.331560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef94…502ebacked Yes15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No76c193.42$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4211833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36b…2e4ebacked Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe830…8bedbacked Yes29c191.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74c8…0b36backed Yes23c187.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked No72c173.49$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa960…5da7backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x750a…02b9backed No76c130.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked Yes11c129.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-87.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8381…29f5backed Yes42c120.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes13c119.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-80.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes16c112.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.014316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1507…3f44backed Yes19c105.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+270.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…ccf4backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x273c…bec5backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202119%4 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No72c70$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0e…87ebbacked Yes43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2252…f7f4backed Yes26c42.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aae…cb22backed No76c34.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes47c31.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c31.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1413424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3cf…2fe0backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e70…2f06backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ed…5707backed No77c20.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf338…14f2backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.