TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf916…9224backed No79c25,753$20,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,294.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes18c14,133$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.53411.8%4 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes34c6,320$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.0323435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes13c5,983$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes42c5,253$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.129037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe423…8c34backed Yes32c4,195$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes39c3,745$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+153.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No55c3,744$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.462634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2384…3e0bbacked No67c3,053$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.245639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked No78c2,422$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.11844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No43c2,094$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+289.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No53c1,942$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.9912927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,895$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5713910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b09…e10fbacked Yes69c1,596$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No51c1,344$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.463666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes16c1,300$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.53658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes32c1,294$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.893119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff82…19c0backed Yes12c1,259$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes29c1,190$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.021040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No45c1,167$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.3124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes6c1,152$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd87b…db63backed Yes4c1,119$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes7c1,043$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.873215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No41c968.49$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.183154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3366…e5bebacked No53c940.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes6c866$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.28429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd94d…365ebacked Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…f954backed Yes30c816.31$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-65.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes23c805.28$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.665356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c778$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.325327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed No47c749.24$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c733.38$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5725528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaffd…8f68backed No41c700$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4121060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No37c657.26$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.264141.5%17 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd822…8c9bbacked No54c645.58$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.141668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+41.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes4c602.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda1…098fbacked Yes6c582.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes43c553$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes32c540$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.99326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc281…e079backed No58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes62c513.7$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac7…76f1backed Yes43c480.69$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…e3ebbacked No72c468.25$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes18c450$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813759.5%22 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes3c449.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050e…8a7cbacked No63c444.96$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.48875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c428.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.621426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8375…3af5backed Yes31c400.33$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No54c400$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1856336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No53c368.32$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.28922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes41c357.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.892321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a2…9981backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Yes11c324.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes43c323.78$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.52128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c320.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No65c308.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.895464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed Yes28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes5c286$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked Yes5c279.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.971241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5468…d86ebacked Yes31c266.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked No42c231.45$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.577727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c226.14$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c216.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No64c208.36$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.151338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No68c204.03$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda00…64e3backed Yes59c202$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.142352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes18c200.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6170%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…5ef3backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…5ab4backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes46c199.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.322642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes23c186.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9917122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes32c175$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked No57c174.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63aa…a9ccbacked No57c174.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes51c172.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3185…7c83backed Yes33c170.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a3…f796backed Yes31c165.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc801…5789backed Yes18c164.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f9a…06bebacked No57c164.17$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d7…dbcabacked No56c159.84$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.331580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes52c157.63$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.69341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd48a…e07bbacked Yes59c157$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab1…5a75backed Yes62c151.52$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed No50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8115125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No48c149.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.493762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes28c149.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.836639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No33c148$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.436100%6 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+144.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6e40…7a06backed No64c140.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…0038backed No72c138.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.83757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b8…a462backed No23c134.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.94520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c4…4ee2backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked No41c121.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+62.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.26930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick33cpaid-85.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes32c119.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.