TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x02a1…dd72backed No5c14,404$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.262931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c13,704$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.92400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes74c10,278$7,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,629.544650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd336…f5e8backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No29c2,986$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.9235519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No28c2,543$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.935234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes64c1,921$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.751258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No30c1,879$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.6115646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No24c1,666$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.4312531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No26c1,490$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2713537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0129…53cebacked No17c1,475$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Yes77c1,433$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.443531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No18c1,202$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.262516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No5c1,200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No20c1,171$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.418143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked Yes75c1,098$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.642147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes74c1,093$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb73…c340backed Yes78c1,031$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes76c856.55$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes73c802.64$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.345851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c745.19$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc366…a27bbacked Yes77c676.19$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes75c667$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.752065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x71d6…cfd6backed Yes69c585.55$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5b…19d9backed Yes65c528.51$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No22c527.36$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.515433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed No26c515.35$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.211838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No17c499.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaef8…fe5cbacked No25c444$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes74c426.17$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.91,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11613525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c3…7524backed No16c382.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No14c359.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.528646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No4c312.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4617713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked No5c289$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.452814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No18c257.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.851833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa56…a3bfbacked No28c255.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+194.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7064backed No20c244.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe290…8521backed No42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed No17c229.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402025%5 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10c3…814ebacked No21c216.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes65c216.78$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2222347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd592…9ed9backed No27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3799…cd36backed No26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-76.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No30c186.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No13c170$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.15137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d34…5aaebacked No16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No16c152$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed No22c147.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.251811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x138e…2e4abacked Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2b…bea9backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae34…5be7backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d32…b563backed Yes77c137.71$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes74c135.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed No22c134.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed No22c125.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.631513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x865c…1016backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1492…97dabacked No29c120.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7656…5ab4backed Yes70c120.29$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.091346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a6…fb1bbacked No23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf2…70f3backed No38c106.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf338…14f2backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e70…2f06backed Yes71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cb…b053backed No23c99.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked No30c94.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc0…47d0backed No31c93.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb1…2a7bbacked Yes74c89.91$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.37837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed No16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf01b…73f4backed No13c78.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44f…41a1backed No15c76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked No19c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.254025%10 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No26c72.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5528636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66dc…7679backed Yes76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffb0…5e25backed No31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed Yes68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.291450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ea…fac1backed Yes74c59.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa2…b94fbacked Yes76c59.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.211643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ce5…e6a3backed Yes69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1863…d0b8backed Yes69c56.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e9…caf0backed Yes72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+121.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x197a…4932backed No27c50.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.581030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8576…f66bbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd760…4fccbacked Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x670f…1f3bbacked No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae38…f877backed Yes72c38.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.891553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057c…ad12backed Yes70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0a…76a3backed Yes72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.724100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+97.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4914…76ebbacked Yes64c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.527100%7 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb393…fa1abacked Yes74c29.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes78c28.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.361942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes71c27.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.079829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e8a…870cbacked Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.673053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.