UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc92ce1dbac0685fda914be5c8fde0b890bf2721057ad22ff3216bf6df9abef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed No | 49c | 1,075$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 51c | 966.61$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.64 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 46c | 538.72$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.27 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 48c | 532.75$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.37 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 55c | 371.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…e5fdbacked Yes | 48c | 336.35$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked No | 52c | 284.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 49c | 274.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.17 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…e526backed Yes | 54c | 272.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 52c | 248.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed No | 44c | 228.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…d4d3backed Yes | 54c | 214.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…db29backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 27c | 138.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 53c | 133.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 48c | 129.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Yes | 48c | 102.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Yes | 53c | 90.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…8cecbacked No | 49c | 60.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…1f56backed Yes | 55c | 53.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x448f…a258backed No | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…cce9backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 46c | 26.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269b…0a3fbacked Yes | 52c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims)Nurmagomedov won
- Will Deiveson Figueiredo win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Umar Nurmagomedov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.