UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f58b1ff6ec9a4da67dfe15931609ae8754a3d25d4d4c37127bdbf85d1f10d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 63c | 652.21$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 36c | 369.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 58c | 295.62$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked No | 70c | 90.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 45c | 80.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…ed3cbacked Yes | 47c | 58.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…2fd8backed Yes | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed No | 62c | 45.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…d221backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…6a41backed Yes | 42c | 33.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…8727backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims)Nurmagomedov won
- Will Deiveson Figueiredo win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Umar Nurmagomedov win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.