UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96753fcf8059346732ad1a53cb7f62704bbc15aefa38e05d99a0979f16252684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 42c | 1,746$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.16 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 1,264$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.4 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 42c | 682.12$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.88 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Under | 46c | 652$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Over | 58c | 353.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 42c | 348.16$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…e526backed Over | 58c | 272.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…55f7backed Under | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Over | 62c | 226.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 45c | 222.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Under | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 56c | 133.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…73d2backed Over | 58c | 131.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…c194backed Over | 58c | 96.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Over | 58c | 96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 60c | 76.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Over | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…3a19backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…cc98backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…0cf5backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…2bedbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Over | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Over | 58c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims)Nurmagomedov won
- Will Deiveson Figueiredo win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Umar Nurmagomedov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.