TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump tariffs on Mexico in effect by May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc055…1299backed Yes65c103,126$67,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,089.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da5…1025backed No35c103,114$36,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,089.940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e9…0801backed No25c5,282$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No12c4,784$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.193859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes55c3,626$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.432352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c2,542$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.1869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes32c2,386$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.436357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No23c2,285$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.455349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No51c2,247$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1514339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No34c2,034$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.496634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed No1c2,015$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes80c1,569$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7815155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No55c1,479$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.31833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No43c1,465$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.3737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes74c1,433$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.66051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No57c1,273$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.4899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed No27c1,271$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No58c1,054$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes70c1,015$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No66c980$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed Yes79c962.43$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.951258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No27c861.31$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.014235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No58c825.03$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.018632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cfe…a1e0backed No2c797.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes50c700$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.686833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No65c688.08$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.112665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes47c673.63$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.821266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked No50c495$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d64…527ebacked No29c478.79$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked Yes38c458$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.882250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30c…ddfbbacked Yes74c425$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.721070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No21c422.81$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes51c411.6$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.638640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Yes40c380$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.71330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No52c365.33$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4217238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No25c363.12$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6928636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed No52c359.63$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.251361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf360…ad1fbacked Yes49c341.43$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8d…d880backed Yes77c323.05$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x690c…8247backed No11c321.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…269bbacked Yes71c280.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No22c272.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…a274backed No47c270.2$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8760%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No54c269.06$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.36842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No10c261.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8430319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e99…18d0backed No23c255.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No29c251.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4411918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked No25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.58847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No55c219.65$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70cb…53d1backed No25c203.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes49c203.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…070abacked No50c200.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes65c200$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.512321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c87…b44bbacked No6c197.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No23c182.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2217713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc2…518dbacked Yes57c174.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No12c173.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes77c166.36$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.477475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb553…88cebacked No63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes74c153.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.55673.2%41 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a31…c1cebacked No54c152.98$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b68…ccb2backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No31c146.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9817021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65fe…eab9backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c137.63$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fa…899fbacked No62c129.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes75c115.5$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.852147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No28c113.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.381,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8b…9d88backed Yes74c107.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.732948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd543…8e91backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes46c96.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.011921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba6a…91d1backed Yes42c96.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.282951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cda…3051backed Yes68c91.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0355…4c8cbacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3452…964ebacked Yes74c78.78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No49c74.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+278.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.439831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No17c67.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.393438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfce…f9c1backed No47c61.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11a7…336abacked No56c60.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1a…7ccbbacked Yes69c58.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c7…05dfbacked Yes42c56.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c54.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.361,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes38c54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.481947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa55…ef43backed Yes64c51.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x541f…0130backed Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132556%14 W · 11 L+7.9wins+0.32per pick24cpaid+320%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes37c49.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.495431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe531…f0a4backed No53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb1f…512abacked Yes64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.881546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7a2…910abacked Yes53c46.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.76944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78b3…f028backed No33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd386…177ebacked Yes56c44.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.