TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$389,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes17c24,651$4,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,172.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes5c19,657$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…a735backed Yes53c11,923$6,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,371.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes9c10,598$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.392437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes11c10,427$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.286011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df9…6b44backed Yes26c8,799$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes32c7,321$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.33823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes5c6,858$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.351729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes8c6,000$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4861020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes1c4,626$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+619.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes11c4,159$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes12c4,016$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.561717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes32c3,615$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.1724315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7221…df5ebacked Yes3c3,328$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes2c3,018$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes3c2,903$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea1…c46fbacked Yes71c2,804$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes11c2,777$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes5c2,584$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.844818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e32…1632backed Yes8c2,580$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.59616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes36c2,307$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.0310723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes37c2,289$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes18c2,218$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.178220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes37c2,213$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x017e…1bf7backed Yes51c2,119$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes16c2,107$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.087238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4126backed No13c2,020$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick13cpaid+256.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes44c2,009$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c1,750$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No14c1,737$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+260.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes51c1,683$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes18c1,638$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked Yes48c1,589$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No60c1,566$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63125731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf37…afc4backed Yes10c1,505$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes6c1,500$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xae4c…6bafbacked Yes2c1,468$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf165…dad7backed Yes4c1,406$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2650…7a6bbacked Yes53c1,349$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6822…2e97backed No69c1,286$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a4…1102backed Yes6c1,280$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No9c1,156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.211338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes36c1,105$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.793327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f52…046fbacked Yes33c1,070$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes50c1,059$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa568…0569backed Yes39c1,019$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No9c1,011$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes16c1,005$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b9…7726backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-92.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d70…640dbacked Yes33c999.9$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed No56c989.97$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed Yes46c960.82$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes45c878.76$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.362250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes15c852.84$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.753920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed No67c843.43$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa975…f137backed No64c808.39$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b2…5b2cbacked No47c780$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes7c752.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…61e1backed Yes6c702.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…899dbacked Yes36c671.12$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes40c610.26$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3650%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d0b…2341backed Yes50c597.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes12c555$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.61560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes48c550$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes50c538.7$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.352060%12 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb245…7631backed Yes10c535$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1841…c63dbacked Yes48c518$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes40c507.22$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8911030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes5c499.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes36c477.58$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.772245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes16c468.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No6c458.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.65633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+238.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes47c438.88$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.121816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fe…aed3backed No66c429.08$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5961…5788backed Yes45c410$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes23c409$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes48c403.47$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed No76c401$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.68650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5860…acbcbacked Yes14c399.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c387.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6421125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…9074backed Yes19c371.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+98.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed Yes78c368.16$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb3…d492backed Yes5c364.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d1…c21fbacked Yes72c352.86$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No78c350$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-79.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1de5…fe7bbacked Yes3c343.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes33c333.19$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes10c318.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.691540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x667d…21cebacked Yes35c318.89$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe10e…cfddbacked No5c317$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+694.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes8c314.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e5…be51backed Yes33c310$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.370%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes34c308$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd82…342bbacked Yes33c304.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes47c300.01$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.