AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x920d55e034e8591e9bcc5d1e5c8fd250283f5d2d2eed4fe138afa50c449781b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 17c | 24,651$4,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,172.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 5c | 19,657$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…a735backed Yes | 53c | 11,923$6,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,371.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 10,598$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 10,427$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.28 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…6b44backed Yes | 26c | 8,799$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 32c | 7,321$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.3 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 5c | 6,858$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 6,000$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,626$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +619.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,159$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 12c | 4,016$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 32c | 3,615$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.17 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,018$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 3c | 2,903$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…c46fbacked Yes | 71c | 2,804$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 11c | 2,777$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 5c | 2,584$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…1632backed Yes | 8c | 2,580$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 36c | 2,307$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.03 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 37c | 2,289$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,218$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.17 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 37c | 2,213$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…1bf7backed Yes | 51c | 2,119$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,107$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.08 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4126backed No | 13c | 2,020$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +256.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 44c | 2,009$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 1,750$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 14c | 1,737$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 51c | 1,683$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 18c | 1,638$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.75 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 48c | 1,589$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 1,566$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…afc4backed Yes | 10c | 1,505$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…6bafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,468$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…dad7backed Yes | 4c | 1,406$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2650…7a6bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,349$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…2e97backed No | 69c | 1,286$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 6c | 1,280$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 9c | 1,156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 36c | 1,105$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.79 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…046fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,070$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 50c | 1,059$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…0569backed Yes | 39c | 1,019$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 9c | 1,011$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 16c | 1,005$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…640dbacked Yes | 33c | 999.9$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 56c | 989.97$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed Yes | 46c | 960.82$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 45c | 878.76$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 852.84$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 67c | 843.43$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed No | 64c | 808.39$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked No | 47c | 780$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 7c | 752.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…61e1backed Yes | 6c | 702.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…899dbacked Yes | 36c | 671.12$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 40c | 610.26$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 50c | 597.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 555$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 48c | 550$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 50c | 538.7$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.35 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…7631backed Yes | 10c | 535$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1841…c63dbacked Yes | 48c | 518$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 40c | 507.22$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 36c | 477.58$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 16c | 468.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 6c | 458.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 47c | 438.88$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…aed3backed No | 66c | 429.08$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 45c | 410$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 23c | 409$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 48c | 403.47$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 76c | 401$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…acbcbacked Yes | 14c | 399.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 387.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 19c | 371.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 78c | 368.16$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb3…d492backed Yes | 5c | 364.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…c21fbacked Yes | 72c | 352.86$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…fe7bbacked Yes | 3c | 343.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 33c | 333.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 10c | 318.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667d…21cebacked Yes | 35c | 318.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked No | 5c | 317$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +694.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 314.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…be51backed Yes | 33c | 310$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 34c | 308$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…342bbacked Yes | 33c | 304.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 47c | 300.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.