AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2024a9764ec9c6f3c931e650075abf6578faf10b909bf73e9dd4d13f5a4bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $359,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 26,303$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 2c | 17,888$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 14,379$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.69 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…e832backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 9,184$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,668$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 1c | 7,212$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,711$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 1c | 6,595$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 1c | 6,315$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,218$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 8c | 5,573$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…948abacked Yes | 2c | 4,430$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +315%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,178$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 5c | 4,057$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…1599backed Yes | 5c | 3,896$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 6c | 3,751$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 4c | 3,013$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4126backed Yes | 2c | 2,859$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +256.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,435$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…1eabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,239$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 9c | 2,228$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e8…b6a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,968$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…b1fdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,964$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f11…1db9backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 4c | 1,721$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 2c | 1,704$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76c…7d8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,596$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 1c | 1,517$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,489$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5775…2d45backed Yes | 3c | 1,441$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 4c | 1,327$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…621bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,194$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,142$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…b527backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…237cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,108$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…a735backed Yes | 2c | 1,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 4c | 1,077$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 3c | 990.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed Yes | 2c | 910$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +300.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 3c | 881.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 6c | 802.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 5c | 797.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 5c | 722.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…5ffcbacked Yes | 6c | 710.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 6c | 641.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 14c | 638.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…6bafbacked Yes | 2c | 622.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…d186backed Yes | 2c | 591.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed Yes | 6c | 590$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 3c | 580.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d9…6ec0backed Yes | 5c | 560.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 10c | 505.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 10c | 503.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…afc4backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 4c | 473.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 9c | 418.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 4c | 403.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 5c | 399.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 5c | 397.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 8c | 383.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 372.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 3c | 354.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes | 19c | 300.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 8c | 287$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 8c | 241.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…d6dcbacked Yes | 9c | 227.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb3…d492backed Yes | 5c | 223.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…bd40backed Yes | 5c | 205.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…a996backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 13c | 196.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…35c4backed Yes | 9c | 156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9a…2d2fbacked Yes | 9c | 130.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 14c | 129.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8c…028abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.