TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$454,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$506,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $454,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d8e…77b6backed Yes77c13,799$10,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No8c11,127$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.726011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes58c7,340$4,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,053.863823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No6c7,077$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes12c6,386$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.921323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No10c5,896$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.27219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No5c5,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes49c4,719$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.152142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes22c4,485$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+48.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes62c4,420$2,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed No11c4,327$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No32c4,239$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No2c4,021$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.351729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4126backed Yes7c4,020$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,744.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick13cpaid+256.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…51b7backed Yes11c3,402$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+295.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes72c3,384$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked No2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed No0c2,995$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes7c2,976$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.112317.4%4 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+101.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes42c2,920$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.173327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes74c2,802$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes71c2,543$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No6c2,221$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.912040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes44c2,102$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes4c2,000$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.983426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0b…2341backed Yes80c1,969$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes52c1,857$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes64c1,811$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.818122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes54c1,774$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.171717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes55c1,687$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf741…3d75backed No3c1,596$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No17c1,400$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.73920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes19c1,307$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+119.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes61c1,282$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.941540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes60c1,250$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2042…6694backed Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes62c1,248$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.91850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes61c1,162$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.592133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b4…b468backed Yes66c1,145$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes52c1,063$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.921346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+108.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d2…e372backed Yes73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61be…a916backed Yes6c1,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No6c999.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed No6c989.74$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes21c951.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.53933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes61c916.69$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.552917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed Yes79c856.15$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.65757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes60c850$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes24c770.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+117.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes26c747.69$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+694.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdda3…8afebacked Yes66c740.81$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…9074backed Yes9c728.92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.941145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+98.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd94…b271backed Yes7c722.38$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.381216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid+25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes58c720$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c686.17$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed Yes75c668.53$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.821163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes22c654$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5072245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f74…c875backed Yes73c653.45$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6757…6917backed Yes7c648.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,248%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes65c639.67$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.884231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc04e…237cbacked No4c637.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No43c616.89$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.44695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x002c…cbc2backed Yes17c605.88$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+494%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes59c601.79$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.731553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes5c601.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.82812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a8b…6fc5backed No12c598.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes64c574.04$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes52c558$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.98837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No17c542$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+238.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes62c527.88$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc40…9388backed Yes58c515.52$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes31c511.97$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.381816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3034…e969backed Yes62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…36ccbacked No33c456.52$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778c…f49cbacked Yes49c454.17$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7eb…2309backed Yes44c450.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes13c444.66$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+296.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…1ddcbacked No6c436.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fe…aed3backed Yes46c436.18$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5e…1740backed Yes33c430.75$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+207.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes58c426.53$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4911030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed Yes72c420$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes36c403.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1804…90c9backed Yes7c400.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.56540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+300.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x912c…2329backed Yes29c386.66$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+69.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f8…3ef8backed No8c369.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e32…1632backed Yes11c365.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.45616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c351.3$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8172935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes74c348.4$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes76c316.38$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes49c306.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.812171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked Yes78c300$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No10c294.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes7c287.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+619.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes46c279.71$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.312218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba32…be21backed Yes55c271.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No13c255.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.492437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.