TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wiklaczof Gafurov, Wiklacz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$517,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$617,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,057 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Gafurov53c96,966$51,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,794.785655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Wiklacz47c58,000$27,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,739.9822259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wiklacz45c55,511$24,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,670.757528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Wiklacz47c38,346$18,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,323.294072.5%29 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Gafurov53c33,333$17,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,666.4935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Gafurov57c31,343$17,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,934.362055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Wiklacz66c30,178$19,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,278.1929151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Gafurov54c25,856$13,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,962.519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Wiklacz43c23,234$9,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,354.4226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Wiklacz44c21,644$9,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,129.233964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x434c…c096backed Wiklacz47c21,000$9,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,1301225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Gafurov31c18,762$5,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,819.158434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Wiklacz44c18,712$8,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,388.969636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Gafurov54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4007238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Gafurov56c10,000$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,574.9811746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Gafurov56c8,228$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.541040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Gafurov55c7,666$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.9628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wiklacz44c7,621$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,267.530039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gafurov56c6,633$3,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,737.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Gafurov56c6,010$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,345.565437%20 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Wiklacz47c5,700$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0216738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Gafurov56c5,313$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Gafurov56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8005050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Gafurov55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.933735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Gafurov56c4,700$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6322552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wiklacz44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.458058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wiklacz46c4,311$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.187233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Gafurov59c3,399$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Wiklacz75c3,344$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.1153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Gafurov53c3,300$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.1519154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Gafurov56c3,220$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.22040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Gafurov8c3,105$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8528043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Wiklacz43c3,005$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.9990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Wiklacz46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62013735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Gafurov53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Gafurov53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Wiklacz46c2,527$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.573625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Wiklacz43c2,436$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.524839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Wiklacz46c2,421$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Gafurov67c2,179$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.6113650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Gafurov54c2,137$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.773857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Gafurov60c2,029$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.520954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Wiklacz43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1404946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Gafurov43c1,930$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.194131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Wiklacz46c1,917$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.9416156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Gafurov8c1,902$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Wiklacz65c1,882$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.9522438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Wiklacz53c1,740$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.175642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Gafurov57c1,697$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.2930964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wiklacz45c1,556$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.3442054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Wiklacz52c1,542$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.085541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wiklacz44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.994337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6532…55f3backed Gafurov2c1,348$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Wiklacz46c1,210$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.114558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Wiklacz44c1,205$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.542445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e62…ef0fbacked Gafurov17c1,195$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.041643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Wiklacz43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.915240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Gafurov56c1,119$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.723423.5%8 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Gafurov51c1,113$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.163151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed Wiklacz45c1,077$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.353737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e0…3eabbacked Gafurov42c1,075$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Wiklacz43c1,008$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.5515641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Gafurov55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Wiklacz47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Wiklacz44c971.31$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.5818038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec6…363dbacked Gafurov54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee02…8132backed Gafurov5c900$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3043…eecebacked Wiklacz72c897.03$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.122347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Gafurov54c874.98$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.9920837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Wiklacz50c837.98$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.2527448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Wiklacz45c827.71$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.263834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Wiklacz43c826.33$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.711650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Wiklacz43c824.76$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.118622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Gafurov55c800$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43836655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Wiklacz44c796.5$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Gafurov53c791.49$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.981963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Wiklacz65c746.69$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.695044%22 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gafurov55c736.13$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.517237.5%27 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca1a…89e5backed Gafurov54c726.37$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.44825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Gafurov28c725.65$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9721247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Wiklacz51c712.95$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.65139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Wiklacz44c699.9$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9456450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Wiklacz48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3251850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Wiklacz45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Wiklacz45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Wiklacz45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae9d…d417backed Wiklacz47c595.74$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.744233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Wiklacz46c554.35$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.357244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x012c…478ebacked Wiklacz46c525.8$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.83357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Gafurov40c504.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bf…7300backed Gafurov5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Wiklacz45c499.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27522661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Wiklacz47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.531471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+53.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2836…c511backed Gafurov57c421.51$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Gafurov48c416.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Wiklacz56c405.14$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7352252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Gafurov70c400$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0310650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Gafurov55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Gafurov53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21210651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Wiklacz43c364$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4820933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.