TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Micallefof Elliott, Micallef
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$355,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Micallef54c40,000$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,399.964040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Micallef55c30,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,5001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Elliott45c22,661$10,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,195.0914558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Elliott46c21,968$10,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,105.289636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Elliott47c18,996$8,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,869.983964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Elliott45c17,567$7,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,890.4237152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Micallef53c12,777$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.1628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Micallef54c11,483$6,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,335.2435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Micallef54c10,522$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,809.0610149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Elliott46c10,187$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,686.027528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Elliott46c8,520$3,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.22532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Elliott46c8,149$3,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,748.5330039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Micallef51c5,000$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.5220954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Micallef54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Micallef54c4,359$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.161764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Elliott46c4,348$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004072.5%29 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Elliott46c3,719$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.7620233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Elliott48c3,655$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.45244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Micallef53c3,399$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.24337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Elliott43c3,056$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.715655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Elliott57c3,053$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.0254056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Micallef55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3503735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Elliott45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.9813735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Elliott45c2,889$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.982445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Micallef58c2,697$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.162166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Micallef34c2,646$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.1915939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…82edbacked Elliott1c2,521$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-23.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xac75…a9e9backed Elliott46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Micallef55c2,464$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.649164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Elliott45c2,428$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.445632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Micallef54c2,362$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.661546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Elliott49c2,291$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1208058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Elliott45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9530964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Micallef43c2,221$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Elliott46c2,173$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.584839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed Micallef54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3bb…c8acbacked Elliott46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Micallef54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9202100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Micallef53c1,987$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.1119154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Micallef55c1,900$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8605044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked Elliott46c1,846$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8491618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb59c…e944backed Micallef55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.182556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Elliott56c1,747$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.8328143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Micallef44c1,591$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.91526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Micallef55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6754100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e62…ef0fbacked Elliott66c1,463$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.491643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee02…8132backed Elliott3c1,300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Micallef37c1,238$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.018248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Micallef54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55220837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Elliott46c1,200$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55217850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Elliott45c1,172$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.2221044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Micallef55c1,160$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.051450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Elliott44c1,149$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9718038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Micallef54c1,147$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.442259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Elliott46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.025240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Elliott45c1,069$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Micallef46c1,046$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.191040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Micallef46c1,040$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.535642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Micallef55c1,018$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.188650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb29…9224backed Elliott45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Micallef54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46036745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Elliott60c997.33$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.336555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Elliott64c948.31$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.921060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Micallef37c944$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.916240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed Micallef55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.092568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+31.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e3b…eeb1backed Elliott70c857.89$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x874f…a13dbacked Elliott62c800.63$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Micallef51c789.52$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.224131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Elliott45c761.33$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.69240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc60e…088cbacked Elliott47c744.89$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Micallef36c690$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.314530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Elliott46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Micallef53c568$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.97233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Micallef55c562.23$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25311332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Micallef54c550$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2538622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3500…2e0bbacked Micallef55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Micallef44c525$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.285541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603e…43febacked Elliott63c520.01$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.921553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Micallef47c500$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6432545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Micallef54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2304337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Elliott46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Micallef55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22536755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Elliott46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x743e…16aebacked Micallef54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Elliott46c481.91$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6810045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Micallef54c460$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.63268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc42f…9bb8backed Micallef56c459.73$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+392.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf09c…4d9abacked Micallef55c454.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.551070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+117.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Micallef50c454.35$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3321247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8828…c29abacked Micallef55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a5…f049backed Elliott46c342.85$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed Elliott76c341.08$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.922065%13 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Micallef54c330$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.856450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Elliott46c326.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e17…2301backed Micallef31c321.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.483132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f1…8e70backed Elliott48c314.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Elliott45c314.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.941060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Micallef54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13814144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Micallef56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13210843.5%47 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Micallef55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.