UFC · resolved market
Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6491faa353438bae9d4b04bd5551528c645bed8c3267c63760008b161f01fb32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 77c | 421.74$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 21c | 394.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed No | 75c | 276.04$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 65c | 225.71$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 21c | 222.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…1535backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…6f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0cd8backed No | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…8955backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Teixeira won
- Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.