UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4ab982dcf5c2adbacf3c9cf2f96ac0d7ffba2412170f9b38d541ffbd1062525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 66c | 5,209$3,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.82 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 34c | 4,922$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,248.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…541fbacked Under | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 67c | 978.79$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.15 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Over | 37c | 845.1$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 32c | 818$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.54 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Under | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 28c | 483.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.02 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Under | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 61c | 368.72$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0cd8backed Under | 71c | 364.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 34c | 208.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Under | 67c | 125$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked Under | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Over | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Over | 35c | 77.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…49efbacked Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -7.6wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Over | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b8…1f17backed Under | 72c | 30.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 78c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Teixeira won
- Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.