UFC · resolved market
Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0636252f52f07c075e80382da1d47e78ca5d046e5be145ad5a7edf98128df621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 38c | 1,312$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.29 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…e9d4backed Yes | 62c | 442.81$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…3286backed Yes | 63c | 276.72$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 62c | 193.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 35c | 93.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…2b93backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 34c | 57.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab47…2667backed Yes | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 47.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…fb58backed Yes | 61c | 40.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ba…bf7cbacked Yes | 62c | 30.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…e52bbacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Teixeira won
- Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.