TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 325: Lawrence Lui vs. Sulangrangbo (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luiof Lui, Sulangrangbo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$417,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$472,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Lui30c82,467$24,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,504.635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Lui31c70,000$21,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,299.682733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Sulangrangbo71c64,915$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,0002055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Lui28c50,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,999.993447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Sulangrangbo71c42,331$29,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,983.2114558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Lui38c29,662$11,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,345.0529151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sulangrangbo64c25,596$16,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,345.8915939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Sulangrangbo71c25,000$17,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,788.377245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Sulangrangbo69c24,040$16,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,476.065655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Lui41c22,258$9,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,139.6328043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Lui29c16,955$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,964.832532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Sulangrangbo72c13,994$10,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,07611554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sulangrangbo69c10,868$7,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,498.6228849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e7…5f44backed Sulangrangbo68c9,195$6,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,252.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Sulangrangbo69c9,061$6,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,252.097545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Sulangrangbo72c8,964$6,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,471.817233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Lui28c7,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0405653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Sulangrangbo69c6,700$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,614.8417055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Lui28c5,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Sulangrangbo56c4,759$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,664.836142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Sulangrangbo68c4,535$3,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.871361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Lui28c4,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8801546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sulangrangbo66c3,469$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,294.8220139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Lui29c3,448$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.282857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Sulangrangbo74c3,268$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,423.2520954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lui68c3,255$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.5535848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a4…7515backed Sulangrangbo65c3,202$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Sulangrangbo71c3,126$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.475437%20 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Sulangrangbo66c3,030$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Lui51c2,862$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.6727448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Sulangrangbo72c2,778$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Sulangrangbo69c2,573$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.366334.9%22 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Sulangrangbo71c2,500$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.975050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Lui28c2,346$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.123625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Sulangrangbo69c2,096$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4467244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Sulangrangbo69c2,041$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Sulangrangbo69c2,028$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.3242054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Lui33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,34010522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Sulangrangbo68c1,871$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.03933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Sulangrangbo69c1,704$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.763246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Sulangrangbo72c1,694$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22011140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Sulangrangbo63c1,535$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.2116746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Lui29c1,500$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0658650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Sulangrangbo71c1,500$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06535664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Sulangrangbo68c1,482$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.515263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Sulangrangbo63c1,400$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.9710650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Lui79c1,378$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.612449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Lui31c1,200$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83136745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Lui31c1,200$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed Sulangrangbo69c1,124$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.56475%48 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Sulangrangbo69c1,050$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.5650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Lui49c1,018$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.36555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lui57c1,013$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.6433132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf05…f8e1backed Sulangrangbo67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6701376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Sulangrangbo66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lui29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7103650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Sulangrangbo67c985.96$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lui25c823.49$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.7318038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked Sulangrangbo69c728.21$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.555446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Lui61c723.21$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2111364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Sulangrangbo71c719$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.49366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Sulangrangbo71c704.97$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.535240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Lui29c700$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4977052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Sulangrangbo63c697.74$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.587251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Lui30c666.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6715552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe455…9e9ebacked Lui46c614.59$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lui27c532.47$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.7126743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…649dbacked Lui35c522.96$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.052343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Sulangrangbo68c518.59$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.64337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Sulangrangbo20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Lui28c484.14$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.582630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sulangrangbo70c471.87$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.3137152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed Lui28c467.86$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.862065%13 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sulangrangbo35c455.14$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.233625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Sulangrangbo69c424.32$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.471668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Lui30c421.91$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.343046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Sulangrangbo72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28836655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Lui29c391.76$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lui28c390$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.82755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Sulangrangbo72c388.89$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28024356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7239…89ccbacked Lui38c388.58$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Sulangrangbo68c383.84$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.859638.5%37 W · 59 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Lui33c366.67$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6751533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Lui28c360$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.213940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2709…9e3bbacked Lui28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.142867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Sulangrangbo70c350.03$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.028856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e4…22cbbacked Sulangrangbo72c347.22$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8828…c29abacked Lui29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07a…c3debacked Lui40c334.25$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.552152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Lui30c333.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.22832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Lui29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21310651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc99…7dc1backed Sulangrangbo68c261.16$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Sulangrangbo69c256.61$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.181040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Sulangrangbo21c245.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9621247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Lui44c227.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3311332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Lui61c226.4$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.465044%22 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…7eebbacked Lui79c224.14$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Lui28c211.52$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.317343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb591…aba5backed Lui29c206.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.91533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Sulangrangbo69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13856450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.