UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f742187b8dc8482878964146b566b7203dbae075ff525709b7242564484af41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Judiceof Miller, Judice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Miller | 14c | 47,731$6,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,682.37 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Miller | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Miller | 14c | 4,646$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.38 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Miller | 14c | 4,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Miller | 4c | 2,968$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Miller | 18c | 2,851$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.18 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Miller | 15c | 2,598$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Miller | 14c | 2,274$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.4 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Miller | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Miller | 16c | 1,737$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.56 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Miller | 15c | 1,691$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.86 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Miller | 17c | 1,507$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Miller | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Miller | 14c | 1,143$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Miller | 13c | 1,114$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Miller | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Miller | 15c | 858.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Miller | 13c | 701.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Miller | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Miller | 15c | 453.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Miller | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…6f5ebacked Miller | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Miller | 15c | 370$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Miller | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Miller | 5c | 340$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Miller | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Miller | 11c | 300.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Miller | 26c | 299.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Miller | 9c | 298.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Miller | 11c | 285.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Miller | 22c | 254.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Judice | 70c | 253.46$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Miller | 15c | 249.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Miller | 17c | 239.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Miller | 20c | 238.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed Miller | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…59b7backed Miller | 22c | 228.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Miller | 12c | 225.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Miller | 14c | 209.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…8c8dbacked Miller | 19c | 203.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Miller | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…0bd5backed Miller | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Miller | 15c | 194.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Miller | 15c | 187.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4598…59f6backed Judice | 77c | 183.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miller | 10c | 156.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Miller | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Miller | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1779…880dbacked Miller | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Miller | 16c | 126.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…9940backed Miller | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Miller | 16c | 112.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Miller | 15c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…6ee1backed Miller | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…f2ecbacked Miller | 15c | 102.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked Miller | 27c | 101.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Miller | 14c | 100.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Miller | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…6c07backed Miller | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Miller | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Miller | 15c | 84.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Miller | 23c | 79.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked Miller | 19c | 72.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Miller | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Judice | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625d…d234backed Miller | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Miller | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Judice | 72c | 34.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Judice | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9443backed Judice | 79c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…6760backed Judice | 71c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Carli Judice win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.