TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hawks, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,857,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,933,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,857,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,477 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ada…2f28backed Hawks0c299,885$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Hawks40c254,720$101,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,887.8247848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8764…604abacked Hornets60c250,000$150,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,0007266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Hawks40c97,661$39,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,371.9916752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks45c76,521$34,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,269.341,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hornets60c67,000$40,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,799.9940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hornets55c65,000$35,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,249.9960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets59c55,365$32,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,460.824,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks13c46,583$5,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,854.251,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Hawks42c40,902$17,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,275.3813142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Hawks45c40,296$18,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,133.1743148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Hawks40c40,000$16,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,075.6119751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hawks35c36,769$13,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,042.1151844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets55c36,110$19,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,210.81,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Hawks40c35,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00011252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Hawks42c32,709$13,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,642.9425546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks23c30,861$7,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,013.862,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Hornets56c30,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,199.9929055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hornets54c30,000$16,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,799.961,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Hornets60c30,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.9438253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hawks44c30,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,199.9351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hawks40c29,039$11,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,644.741,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ea…bea2backed Hawks45c28,460$12,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,806.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Hawks5c26,135$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.5183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Hawks0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Hawks45c24,725$11,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,198.537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Hawks42c23,787$9,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,990.339053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Hawks39c22,048$8,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,546.3477348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks42c22,024$9,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,161.864,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Hornets71c21,995$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,394.7716848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks20c21,455$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.351,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe6e…ddf7backed Hawks35c21,240$7,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,433.993129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed Hornets65c21,240$13,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,433.982965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Hornets59c20,315$12,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,254.9321951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Hawks45c20,267$9,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,1206651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Hawks35c20,158$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.8629250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Hawks41c20,015$8,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,306.1223245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Hornets65c20,001$13,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,950.3528554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hawks45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Hornets59c20,000$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,199.9820551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Hornets60c20,000$11,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,011.6531445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Hornets55c19,997$10,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,998.624856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Hawks45c19,988$8,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,994.5715247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079e…8254backed Hornets55c19,500$10,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,809.025750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3934…8352backed Hornets62c19,101$11,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,272.333658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Hawks44c18,234$8,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,022.9630845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Hawks37c16,216$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00010746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Hornets55c16,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets58c15,852$9,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,579.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hawks42c15,430$6,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,532.472,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Hawks44c15,398$6,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,817.2813842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hornets59c14,248$8,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,829.951,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2196…da90backed Hornets61c13,528$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,278.534040%16 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Hawks36c13,082$4,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,76710952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Hawks40c12,500$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00015349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Hawks43c11,972$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,147.989655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Hornets75c11,866$8,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.433351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks31c11,736$3,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,688.443,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hornets59c11,144$6,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,623.884,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Hawks0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Hornets64c10,885$6,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,918.621549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets62c10,154$6,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.372,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Hornets65c10,127$6,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.0636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Hawks40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Hawks35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5008052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Hornets55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.998944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Hornets64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.981850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Hornets65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.9713249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Hawks45c8,900$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.9724549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hornets55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Hawks34c7,577$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.0445850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Hornets64c7,501$4,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.3614945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Hawks35c7,501$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.3413148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets55c7,500$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3751,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Hornets73c7,342$5,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.636459.4%38 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Hornets55c7,164$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,223.799440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Hornets60c7,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f33…06b1backed Hawks46c6,968$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.163215.6%5 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-40.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3022…3794backed Hornets60c6,700$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6802360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Hawks41c6,550$2,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.9680737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a65…9e1cbacked Hawks5c6,533$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Hawks34c6,418$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19138046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76cb…55d3backed Hawks41c6,262$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.344445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Hawks39c6,095$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.9512524.8%31 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb5…3fbfbacked Hawks45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7006445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Hawks44c5,847$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.7321446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hawks0c5,783$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.577211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets64c5,156$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.282,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Hornets55c5,151$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.9129650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b1…c7e3backed Hawks2c5,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Hawks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Hornets55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Hawks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9913625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Hawks34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.986144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Hornets57c4,800$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06458951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Hornets56c4,768$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.8465750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Hornets65c4,700$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6459054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7b…213cbacked Hornets65c4,700$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Hawks35c4,700$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.988640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Hornets61c4,684$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.937850%39 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.