NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf9787cbf9f2b87e6b4669718519e907b00f74c1941e9b2b0fe6285e7c2a533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hornets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Hawks | 52c | 18,302$9,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,782.53 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Hornets | 48c | 7,056$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.71 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…8eeabacked Hornets | 48c | 4,911$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 47c | 4,292$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 58c | 1,741$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.88 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Hornets | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Hornets | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Hawks | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 58c | 737.7$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.07 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 41c | 682$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 45c | 438.62$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Hornets | 49c | 411.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 51c | 305.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 69c | 294.38$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Hawks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Hornets | 42c | 181.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hornets | 44c | 176.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Hawks | 56c | 167.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Hornets | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Hornets | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Hawks | 14c | 134.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Hawks | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Hawks | 28c | 96.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Hawks | 52c | 90.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Hawks | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…7a67backed Hawks | 53c | 75.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Hawks | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 48c | 70.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Hawks | 57c | 53.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hornets | 46c | 41.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Hornets | 43c | 41.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Hawks | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Hornets | 45c | 39.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked Hawks | 52c | 38.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Hornets | 48c | 35.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hawks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…c5f1backed Hornets | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Hawks | 56c | 30.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Hornets | 55c | 30.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Hornets | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Hawks | 61c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Hawks | 56c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Hornets won
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Hawks vs. HornetsHornets won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 20.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Ryan Kalkbrenner: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Ryan Kalkbrenner: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hawks won
- Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.