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NBA · resolved market

Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 23.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,205 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6884…6ccfbacked Yes47c2,555$1,198 inLost-$1,197.9439051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No52c2,143$1,115 inWon+$1,027.871,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Yes53c939.81$500 inLost-$50010352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No47c689.81$322 inWon+$367.51,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No60c350$211 inWon+$139.590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c250$118 inWon+$132.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a8…1932backed Yes40c153.88$61 inLost-$612245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No59c86.59$51 inWon+$35.545657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cc6…241dbacked Yes28c69$19 inLost-$19.32955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+381.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8143…9698backed No72c69$50 inWon+$19.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No49c50$25 inWon+$25.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No63c49.99$31 inWon+$18.521672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaf1e…2f5abacked Yes28c36$10 inLost-$10.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ad…29b8backed No72c36$26 inWon+$10.083100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bb…da3abacked No60c20$12 inWon+$82466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.