NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2da87a50da8edb7217165ed46ab2ead4ee60bbfe29724de074785d80e7439f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Hawks | 52c | 30,014$15,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,607.13 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Hornets | 48c | 20,719$9,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,774 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 48c | 9,431$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,904.22 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Hawks | 52c | 6,500$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,379.62 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 49c | 5,251$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Hawks | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Hornets | 48c | 3,403$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.32 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 47c | 3,299$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.29 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hornets | 48c | 2,529$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.88 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Hornets | 58c | 1,729$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 42c | 1,693$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Hornets | 47c | 474.92$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.71 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Hawks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Hornets | 51c | 392.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.69 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Hawks | 53c | 198.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 47c | 198.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Hornets | 48c | 188.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Hornets | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Hawks | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Hawks | 29c | 121.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Hawks | 28c | 90.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…6a82backed Hornets | 61c | 79.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hornets | 48c | 55.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hornets | 48c | 49.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Hawks | 46c | 47.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…7dcebacked Hornets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Hawks | 52c | 34.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 43c | 32.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…34b7backed Hornets | 71c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Hornets won
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Hawks vs. HornetsHornets won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 20.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Ryan Kalkbrenner: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Ryan Kalkbrenner: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hawks won
- Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.