TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $813 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x64a3…cc70backed Under47c156$73 inWon+$82.685455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Under47c133$63 inWon+$70.499050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over59c100$59 inLost-$591,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under41c100$41 inWon+$5963555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under47c49$23 inWon+$25.978355.4%46 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bd…8deabacked Over53c29$15 inLost-$15.373438.2%13 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x480a…e3c9backed Over53c28$15 inLost-$14.842835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Over53c28$15 inLost-$14.843548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Over53c26$14 inLost-$13.783956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed Over53c26$14 inLost-$13.783040%12 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb665…95a8backed Over53c26$14 inLost-$13.782544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4182…ae54backed Over53c26$14 inLost-$13.781735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x194f…81b6backed Over53c26$14 inLost-$13.782347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c6…f8afbacked Over53c26$14 inLost-$13.783240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14cd…1716backed Over53c21$11 inLost-$11.133759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86a…9ed1backed Over53c21$11 inLost-$11.133354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Over53c19$10 inLost-$10.074060%24 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6098…d746backed Over53c19$10 inLost-$10.072814.3%4 W · 24 L-9.8wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-72.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.