TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,386,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,556,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,386,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Thunder47c830,514$390,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439,805.487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Thunder49c307,552$150,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,005.1143542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Raptors51c171,367$87,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,291.2187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Raptors55c120,696$65,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,858.811,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder45c115,429$51,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,803.342,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors55c112,155$61,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,259.671,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Raptors51c100,156$51,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,079.829650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Raptors50c100,000$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00023257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Thunder52c93,921$48,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,287.2551354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors52c87,300$45,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,565.94,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Raptors51c75,950$38,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,734.55534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors51c73,681$37,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,322.582,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Raptors56c70,000$39,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,00060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Thunder46c65,929$30,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,601.4730845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Raptors50c65,626$32,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,994.8244352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder44c64,791$28,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,022.31,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Raptors55c60,788$33,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,433.1525753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Thunder49c56,633$27,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,882.9272648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Raptors50c54,988$27,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,494.1759347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa491…3177backed Raptors49c49,945$24,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,473.165959.3%35 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Thunder50c46,551$23,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,275.5720454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Raptors56c40,373$22,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,702.624151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Thunder47c40,000$18,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,10037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Thunder45c36,629$16,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,208.4419645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Raptors56c35,406$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0007758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec9…8d0bbacked Raptors52c33,573$17,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,413.462152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Raptors51c33,400$16,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,904.1559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Raptors52c29,582$15,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,471.3371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raptors28c28,336$8,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,041.331,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Raptors20c28,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.997638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Raptors53c26,571$14,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,097.4540350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Raptors55c25,637$14,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,075.7548054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Raptors56c25,632$14,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,353.924742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Thunder44c25,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,00017249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Thunder50c24,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0008052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Thunder44c24,000$10,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,439.9954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Raptors50c23,992$11,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,996.1413249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Raptors56c22,000$12,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,3205648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Thunder45c21,993$9,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,095.979053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Thunder43c21,975$9,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,525.4828649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Raptors55c21,480$11,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,905.81,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Thunder45c21,000$9,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,52087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors21c20,478$4,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,242.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors53c20,334$10,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,728.574,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Raptors49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80016339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…68a0backed Raptors51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder49c20,000$9,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,115.341,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Raptors54c19,729$10,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,56829347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raptors29c19,505$5,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,643.81,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Raptors51c18,932$9,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6266657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Raptors59c18,620$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Thunder49c18,250$8,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,307.577348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Thunder50c17,767$8,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,883.5314358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Raptors50c16,898$8,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4579345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Raptors13c16,511$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.841,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Raptors51c15,992$8,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,082.7931644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors52c15,543$8,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,107.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder57c15,070$8,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,507.543,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Raptors50c14,784$7,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,387.2326949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors1c13,960$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.161,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Thunder49c13,936$6,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,085.4536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Raptors23c13,284$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.1816919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Thunder50c11,968$5,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9849531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Raptors1c11,648$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.257211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors51c11,637$5,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,968.453,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Raptors56c11,500$6,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,44028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa115…6c5abacked Raptors57c11,447$6,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5252250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Raptors53c11,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ea…6e4ebacked Raptors52c10,956$5,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,652.3516146%74 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Raptors52c10,865$5,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6501421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Thunder48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.6720849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf958…5a02backed Raptors25c10,158$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.362665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+39.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64dc…e3e7backed Raptors50c10,031$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Thunder45c10,000$4,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,54043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ec…9893backed Thunder50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+75.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Raptors34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9813625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Raptors55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.873333.3%11 W · 22 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Raptors55c9,638$5,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,316.8292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Raptors52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0009250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Raptors51c9,216$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7006848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Raptors50c9,133$4,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,566.653148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors27c8,935$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…b04bbacked Raptors55c8,934$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8803268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22b6…0ebcbacked Raptors51c8,685$4,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,435.35955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Raptors49c8,642$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.4932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Raptors43c8,595$3,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,727.4510641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b0…9da7backed Raptors31c8,100$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.085257.7%30 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Raptors51c7,914$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,035.8922137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Raptors52c7,787$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,027.0662144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc825…4530backed Raptors52c7,346$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.044231%13 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Raptors51c7,256$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700.4851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb7…e8e5backed Raptors2c7,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Thunder44c6,887$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.8912657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Raptors13c6,766$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.4833139.3%130 W · 201 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Thunder46c6,671$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.1765750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5682…46cbbacked Thunder50c6,666$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,332.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Raptors51c6,565$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.541832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Raptors51c6,510$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.18155.6%45 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder47c6,500$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,44558449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.