NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab018e6bf2348f5c7a696aaebe59f59f5cebe7b475eaffccd90447143e80ca87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 54c | 44,879$24,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,452.09 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 36,018$16,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,441.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,785$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.14 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 2,686$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.63 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 2,334$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.94 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 47c | 1,666$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.68 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 46c | 1,620$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.2 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 635.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 365.66$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Over | 52c | 278.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -19.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 156$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Over | 53c | 134.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 102.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…18dfbacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 54c | 85.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 75.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 49.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 45c | 47.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 51c | 43.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 97 | 68%66 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 35.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 48c | 26.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Isaiah Joe: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. RaptorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.