NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e600c1cdea503597fea27cf7528b0fbb899edb2a411d6ba3b1437bd14638db1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe39a…da0bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,733$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.23 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 69c | 2,138$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.12 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 66c | 1,682$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.77 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,513$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.02 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 49c | 1,500$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 67c | 1,149$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.1 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,081$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…f2e0backed Yes | 34c | 1,053$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 960.7$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 67c | 835.99$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.95 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 78c | 800$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 28c | 703.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 69c | 685$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.35 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Yes | 19c | 615.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…737ebacked Yes | 33c | 611.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes | 34c | 600.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.81 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 70c | 539.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 66c | 520$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed Yes | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…6ad4backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…afa2backed Yes | 26c | 341.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bc…f2fabacked Yes | 28c | 335.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 73c | 316.6$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…30d3backed Yes | 28c | 210.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 68c | 172.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…28f7backed Yes | 37c | 164.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 71c | 97.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…103bbacked Yes | 32c | 97.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 69c | 62.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd060…a966backed Yes | 33c | 58.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 67c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 61c | 35.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…3575backed Yes | 39c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 66c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Isaiah Joe: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. RaptorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.