TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Thunder45c20,699$9,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,380.787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors57c11,400$6,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.924,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Raptors54c9,604$5,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,144.5944352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Raptors55c7,901$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,38026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Raptors55c5,575$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.2592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.9579549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors51c3,302$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.148,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Thunder48c3,194$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.6151354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacea…edcebacked Raptors54c3,113$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors54c3,019$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6409,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa917…252dbacked Thunder47c2,991$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd80…fd3cbacked Thunder46c2,866$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa347…8477backed Thunder47c2,862$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…ca17backed Raptors53c2,811$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0c…da2dbacked Thunder47c2,808$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d50…abaebacked Thunder47c2,803$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa790…e6c5backed Thunder47c2,515$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Thunder47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32512245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fed…4269backed Thunder46c2,456$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder49c2,421$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.31,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…054ebacked Raptors53c2,283$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder45c2,222$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.221,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d6…770fbacked Raptors53c2,115$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffc…fcb7backed Raptors53c2,099$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcf…baddbacked Raptors54c2,022$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d42…f254backed Thunder46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb82b…52e9backed Raptors53c1,945$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9a…1d4fbacked Raptors53c1,926$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61d5…a549backed Thunder47c1,917$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.012100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…2b3abacked Thunder47c1,825$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bdd…d3fbbacked Raptors53c1,818$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c3…6192backed Thunder47c1,818$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder47c1,782$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.564,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183a…b14dbacked Raptors53c1,771$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x521d…5c08backed Raptors54c1,752$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…87ccbacked Thunder47c1,745$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder44c1,700$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.273,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Thunder45c1,689$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.8865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors54c1,677$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.856,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Thunder43c1,666$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.6276249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors60c1,637$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.963,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Raptors52c1,600$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8321,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d62…7e2dbacked Raptors53c1,501$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc76f…1b7abacked Raptors53c1,436$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a6…2b0abacked Raptors53c1,378$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Raptors54c1,329$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.6658347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Thunder41c1,214$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.8540243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e7…56d4backed Raptors54c1,155$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Raptors55c1,112$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.8148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Raptors55c1,101$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.698765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Raptors55c1,091$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60015154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Thunder47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53035942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Raptors51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors52c988.32$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.564,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Thunder46c941.2$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.2514448.6%70 W · 74 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd992…5ff6backed Thunder47c815$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa137…afe6backed Thunder46c763$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Raptors54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Raptors55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors56c520.52$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.492,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder48c516$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.322,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e04…99d1backed Raptors53c507$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e71…aa41backed Raptors58c446.36$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Thunder48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Raptors59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23651651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Raptors57c383.62$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.511,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2044backed Raptors58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Raptors56c327.75$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5419045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Thunder48c326.05$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.371,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eed…cf44backed Thunder43c317.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.972142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf70…0a7ebacked Raptors53c313$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Thunder42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17435444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Thunder46c264.89$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9817233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Thunder49c255.1$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.111754.7%64 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors55c244.49$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.43,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Raptors55c241.82$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13319548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder44c232.85$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.443,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17dd…f280backed Raptors53c232$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Raptors54c228$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1245646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Thunder46c217.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2538350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c7e…faafbacked Raptors54c202.69$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.455259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Thunder43c202.33$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3315949.7%79 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…20b8backed Thunder47c202$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Raptors54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Raptors55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Raptors54c170.94$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3116440.9%67 W · 97 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Raptors55c169$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.959849%48 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Raptors49c161.11$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.521,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors51c154.49$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.791,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e3…c09fbacked Thunder47c152.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.96953.6%37 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe79c…431cbacked Raptors53c146$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3106…ad08backed Raptors53c144$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e13…2ac4backed Thunder46c142.58$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.996731.3%21 W · 46 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ca7…b4adbacked Thunder46c140$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.62263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Raptors55c126$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.354246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Raptors53c125.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7815650%78 W · 78 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31cb…8956backed Thunder47c124$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Raptors54c123.91$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.919742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb65…f282backed Thunder47c122$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272c…6d9cbacked Raptors53c122$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.