TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$196,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over52c109,260$56,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,549.3543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c67,255$32,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,389.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,40059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Over52c8,568$4,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.8416547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under49c7,286$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.3622648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c5,927$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.754,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over50c5,720$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,86048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a6…7866backed Over49c5,444$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under50c4,866$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43364651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c4,768$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.758,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cfc…006abacked Over49c4,701$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b66…22e7backed Under51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over50c3,984$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.0970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under51c3,735$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.982,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23d…a354backed Under51c3,544$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75a…093dbacked Over49c3,200$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Over53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.9924050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b8…06a6backed Under51c2,955$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f7…2ddebacked Over49c2,888$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c2,884$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.173,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4c…fc32backed Under51c2,544$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x426c…3253backed Over49c2,255$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd73…03bebacked Under51c2,200$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under50c2,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d68…e87abacked Under51c1,888$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under48c1,862$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.882,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c1,752$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.294,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under48c1,538$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Over54c1,499$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.5413954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3255…f0edbacked Under51c1,356$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over49c999.96$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.9851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c984.67$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.884,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under51c799.98$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9967252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Over50c766$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3839952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c701.94$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.112,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over50c674$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33738946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under49c590.35$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26052052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over51c429.04$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2318650%93 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over49c250.33$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.672,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under49c227.08$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.313,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10278652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9453951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under48c146$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.082,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under49c119.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.562541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.162,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5033949.9%169 W · 170 L-1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4918233%60 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under52c96.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c92.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.383,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f6…1848backed Under55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012152.1%63 W · 58 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Over51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.34250%21 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over53c76.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0568645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c63.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.734,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under51c56.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.831,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under48c51.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6225655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under48c51.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6530151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over50c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e4…9f9cbacked Over51c40.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.921353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9561…ae8abacked Under46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43231.3%10 W · 22 L-6.1wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0ba3…8cb2backed Under48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.29758.8%57 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Under51c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8712841.4%53 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Over50c36.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3711352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Under59c35.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2162347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under48c35.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0887744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd337…8f07backed Under49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under53c30.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.093,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over51c29.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6137344.2%165 W · 208 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under47c29.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7550841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1105…b163backed Under51c20.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.512259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Under52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.421553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1087950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.