NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cebe158151efce5b449635a4a01be9ea9f42768cb0166b45d2f2d1b0e1c00c

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $103,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $104,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,185 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over	47c	60,162$28,391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,771.23	435	42.8%186 W · 249 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	53c	24,242$12,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,842.44	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	52c	17,821$9,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,319.98	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	53c	5,696$3,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,003.44	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cb…8956backed Over	49c	5,401$2,646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,754.51	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	53c	5,358$2,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,830.1	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b8…20b8backed Over	49c	5,010$2,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,555.1	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Under	47c	3,782$1,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,777.45	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf70…0a7ebacked Over	49c	3,211$1,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,637.61	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d50…abaebacked Under	51c	2,709$1,382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,381.59	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Under	57c	2,600$1,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,480.91	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1569…ca17backed Under	51c	2,388$1,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,217.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	52c	2,124$1,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,104.62	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Under	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	52c	1,802$942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$860.87	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9a…1d4fbacked Under	51c	1,655$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$844.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…2b3abacked Under	51c	1,616$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c3…6192backed Under	51c	1,601$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under	45c	1,573$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.77	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…87ccbacked Under	51c	1,514$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under	54c	1,500$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.99	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a6…2b0abacked Under	51c	1,478$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb82b…52e9backed Under	51c	1,414$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	52c	905.08$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.59	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	53c	806.3$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.35	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	48c	800$384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3106…ad08backed Over	49c	753$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.03	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under	54c	555.55$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Under	54c	496.69$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	31c	412.61$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.79	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	201	47.8%96 W · 105 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	53c	270.03$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.23	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e2…9018backed Over	49c	249.8$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.4	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+97.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under	53c	230$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.9	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	170	35.9%61 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Over	46c	216$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.64	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Under	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Under	51c	199.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	623	47.7%297 W · 326 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	53c	198$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.94	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-13.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…b0a5backed Under	29c	173.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	-7.0wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-31%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Over	45c	150$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.5	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	47c	141.44$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.96	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under	53c	115$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.95	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	44c	113.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.63	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	228	45.2%103 W · 125 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Under	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Under	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Under	57c	78.95$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	257	52.5%135 W · 122 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x997c…a9a9backed Over	45c	77.78$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.78	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Under	50c	69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	94	50%47 W · 47 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Over	45c	60$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Over	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	130	37.7%49 W · 81 L	-14.4wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	55c	49$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	45c	47.75$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1c…4eaabacked Under	53c	41.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Under	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x558a…e9b3backed Over	53c	38.91$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.29	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Under	56c	37.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Over	44c	34.09$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.09	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Under	56c	30.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	110	45.5%50 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc00c…ddc2backed Under	55c	27.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4213…6940backed Under	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	73.5%25 W · 9 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x41d7…7c97backed Over	53c	25.96$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked Over	45c	24.76$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.62	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dc0…0633backed Over	45c	24.73$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f8…148fbacked Over	46c	22.54$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.17	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	69	69.6%48 W · 21 L	+10.3wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5this page
1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Thunder won
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Isaiah Joe: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
Thunder vs. RaptorsThunder won
Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5Over won
Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5Over won
Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event