NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1c41ea0b72a4965d34e70b670bb05dfcf72ab37c0c9080b79a03bc3b098f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 54c | 344.21$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…afa2backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 76c | 333.33$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed No | 69c | 323.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4792…d1c8backed Yes | 46c | 205.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 77c | 159$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…a5d6backed Yes | 36c | 112.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…f839backed Yes | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f5…2df3backed Yes | 30c | 89.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 32c | 71.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 64c | 57.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked No | 57c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Isaiah Joe: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. RaptorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.