UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe31d1016f5073c7201d0f47f6decf0d1686b054ffb7cc8fc4334393f156eaa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bautistaof Bautista, Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $779,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $814,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $779,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Oliveira | 45c | 130,000$58,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,499.94 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d894backed Bautista | 55c | 115,054$63,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,215.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Bautista | 55c | 89,763$48,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,791.06 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Oliveira | 43c | 66,081$28,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,414.89 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Oliveira | 44c | 63,587$27,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,978.28 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bautista | 56c | 57,390$32,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,025.43 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bautista | 56c | 50,323$28,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,145.54 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Bautista | 56c | 47,489$26,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,895.38 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Oliveira | 44c | 40,000$17,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,599.97 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…c096backed Oliveira | 46c | 38,700$17,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,802 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Oliveira | 45c | 38,215$17,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,196.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Bautista | 54c | 29,000$15,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,315.79 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oliveira | 44c | 26,200$11,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,534.54 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Bautista | 55c | 25,810$14,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,670.14 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Oliveira | 42c | 21,341$8,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,963.12 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oliveira | 44c | 17,654$7,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,821.83 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Bautista | 54c | 16,575$8,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,624.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Oliveira | 41c | 15,175$6,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,275.23 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…e243backed Oliveira | 42c | 14,749$6,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,147.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bautista | 56c | 14,044$7,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,211.65 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…8e70backed Oliveira | 45c | 13,829$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,250 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Oliveira | 43c | 13,703$5,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,924.3 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bautista | 54c | 13,183$7,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,064.19 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Bautista | 59c | 12,900$7,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,289 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed Oliveira | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Bautista | 58c | 10,177$5,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,279.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Oliveira | 40c | 10,057$4,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,010.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Bautista | 55c | 9,100$5,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,095 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Oliveira | 44c | 9,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Bautista | 60c | 8,457$5,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,405.89 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Oliveira | 43c | 7,326$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.86 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Oliveira | 45c | 6,667$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.15 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bautista | 71c | 6,163$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.78 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Bautista | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd2…29a2backed Oliveira | 45c | 5,540$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Bautista | 57c | 5,511$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.73 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Bautista | 56c | 5,500$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Bautista | 57c | 5,267$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Oliveira | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Bautista | 55c | 4,854$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Bautista | 57c | 4,600$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Bautista | 54c | 4,545$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.57 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Bautista | 56c | 4,464$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.29 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Bautista | 58c | 4,429$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.56 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Oliveira | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Bautista | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Oliveira | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Bautista | 55c | 3,680$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.22 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Oliveira | 43c | 3,600$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…d535backed Bautista | 56c | 3,550$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…ed19backed Bautista | 55c | 3,456$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Oliveira | 46c | 3,426$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bautista | 58c | 3,335$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Bautista | 76c | 3,093$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.27 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Oliveira | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Bautista | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Oliveira | 43c | 2,989$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.56 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Bautista | 56c | 2,807$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.3 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Bautista | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.57 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Oliveira | 40c | 2,649$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Oliveira | 46c | 2,600$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6052…c0c3backed Bautista | 63c | 2,560$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Bautista | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Oliveira | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked Bautista | 55c | 2,499$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Bautista | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Bautista | 56c | 2,248$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.21 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Bautista | 55c | 2,204$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.89 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…363dbacked Bautista | 56c | 2,158$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…3864backed Oliveira | 44c | 2,124$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bautista | 55c | 1,910$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.22 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Bautista | 58c | 1,908$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Oliveira | 43c | 1,900$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Oliveira | 43c | 1,811$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.18 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Bautista | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Bautista | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Bautista | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…09c4backed Bautista | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Bautista | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bautista | 57c | 1,744$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.38 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bautista | 55c | 1,744$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.77 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc87…aa26backed Oliveira | 45c | 1,699$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Oliveira | 45c | 1,667$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb591…aba5backed Oliveira | 46c | 1,622$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Oliveira | 45c | 1,556$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Oliveira | 7c | 1,521$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bautista | 56c | 1,505$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.15 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…dbeabacked Oliveira | 45c | 1,489$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Bautista | 57c | 1,357$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.67 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Oliveira | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Oliveira | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.09 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Oliveira | 44c | 1,145$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Oliveira | 46c | 1,110$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Bautista | 59c | 1,100$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bautista | 75c | 1,077$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.36 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Bautista | 58c | 1,040$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked Bautista | 57c | 1,010$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Bautista | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Bautista | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Oliveira | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Mario Bautista win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.