UFC · resolved market
Will Mario Bautista win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb21325b34a052d3e40eed3b8040cc885345fa93ecb745bc7c7f4c4780de67ffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 77c | 1,538$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.33 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 30c | 1,038$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked Yes | 23c | 682$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 61c | 344.18$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 26c | 156.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Yes | 13c | 107.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 74c | 96.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 96.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf799…3040backed Yes | 21c | 81.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 78c | 70.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 65.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mario Bautista win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)Bautista won
- Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.