TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,779,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,536,291

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,779,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0222…8ff7backed No38c3,440,213$1,319,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319,295.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Yes63c600,559$380,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,361.792166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes61c598,289$364,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233,332.6815344.4%68 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes62c433,790$268,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164,972.6427750.9%141 W · 136 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes61c381,579$231,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,000.022857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Yes64c309,317$199,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,309.33339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed No36c288,409$105,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,219.971533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes63c243,039$153,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,494.0314544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes65c169,230$110,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,758.776,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b1…c7e3backed Yes78c128,205$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,205.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036c…178dbacked Yes63c120,000$75,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,4003740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes62c107,688$67,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,565.632,53047.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L+43.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccb2…8586backed Yes63c100,000$63,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,000560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes64c100,000$64,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,00024846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No36c100,000$36,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,0003557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes67c93,469$62,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,112.592,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No35c90,000$31,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,499.893644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes68c89,436$60,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,908.771,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No35c88,941$31,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,129.5219253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Yes62c83,940$51,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,017.269141.8%38 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes61c81,076$49,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,300.7821253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No32c78,157$25,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,364.0620545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No36c74,238$26,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,495.2431944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e6…5448backed No36c73,377$26,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,346.451040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed No36c62,200$22,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,548.987542.7%32 W · 43 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d7…1252backed Yes65c42,077$27,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,726.98966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No33c41,242$13,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,697.5324146.9%113 W · 128 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Yes61c40,000$24,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,60015049.3%74 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes65c34,649$22,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,087.9828242.2%119 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No22c29,425$6,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,473.5116651.2%85 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd414…6a0cbacked No33c29,390$9,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,815.032650%13 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed No37c23,570$8,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7213256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No36c23,402$8,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,424.7910236.3%37 W · 65 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes64c22,784$14,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,202.3618948.7%92 W · 97 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No35c21,560$7,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,54610057%57 W · 43 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3328…e6b8backed Yes66c20,108$13,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,779.813148.4%15 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick35cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No36c20,071$7,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,225.5612847.7%61 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked No33c17,155$5,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,654.463745.9%17 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed No34c17,005$5,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,711.671758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes62c16,945$10,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,419.657147.9%34 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes63c16,651$10,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,160.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes61c16,393$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,393.4411349.6%56 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes67c16,321$10,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,371.1617634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No33c15,091$5,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,032.5415748.4%76 W · 81 L+13.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x87a1…b6babacked Yes63c15,079$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,579.371361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed No23c15,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Yes62c14,677$9,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,577.421947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked No32c13,052$4,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,220.075455.6%30 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes61c12,000$7,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6803658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked No32c11,412$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.963246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes61c11,200$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,368.0213444.8%60 W · 74 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Yes64c11,078$7,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,988.081855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f45…180bbacked Yes75c10,781$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.255226.9%14 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Yes64c10,120$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.195646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes77c10,058$7,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.571163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f6…21bebacked Yes65c9,817$6,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,433.751030%3 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick61cpaid-51.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes65c8,988$5,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.6230143.9%132 W · 169 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No34c8,426$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.821,26433.7%426 W · 838 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes63c8,225$5,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,067.311,17950%590 W · 589 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Yes61c8,197$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.722268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2682…582abacked Yes62c7,988$4,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,014.515442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b4d…ae93backed Yes62c7,953$4,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,014.79560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Yes65c7,692$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.316066.7%40 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…181cbacked Yes65c7,692$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked Yes63c7,375$4,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.759150.5%46 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9206…42a6backed Yes63c7,078$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+96.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5208939.3%35 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Yes78c6,467$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.224240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4594…b1acbacked Yes64c6,250$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2508259.8%49 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed No24c6,250$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005536.4%20 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf80…7783backed No36c6,190$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e3…e0dcbacked Yes64c6,120$3,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No36c6,069$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1855050%25 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Yes64c6,060$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.767149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No37c6,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.9937054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No34c5,794$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.9419239.1%75 W · 117 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed Yes65c5,747$3,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.571752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Yes63c5,556$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.569451.1%48 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes63c5,457$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.9956453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Yes63c5,405$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0005655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No31c5,193$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.6825544.7%114 W · 141 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Yes79c5,175$4,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.224856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8503839.5%15 W · 23 L-8.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-39.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80050644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed Yes65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75015944.7%71 W · 88 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9925648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Yes63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Yes62c4,832$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.962560%15 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Yes64c4,688$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.51668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bd…c88dbacked Yes63c4,583$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes66c4,545$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.484447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No27c4,505$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.451,00446.3%465 W · 539 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes64c4,441$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.886549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes64c4,335$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.455064%32 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Yes62c4,260$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.42360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48014258.5%83 W · 59 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4009055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Yes65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40045936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9918362.3%114 W · 69 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.984862.5%30 W · 18 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.