TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Suns, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,750,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,907,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,750,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Suns29c517,240$150,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,999.6843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Spurs71c263,650$188,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,487.7223257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec44…c92bbacked Suns7c191,375$12,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,719.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns28c175,235$49,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,065.6787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Suns29c130,000$37,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,70048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Suns28c109,686$30,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,241.9958740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Suns28c100,000$28,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs72c99,733$71,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,807.512,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Suns28c87,590$24,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,868.5651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs71c86,590$61,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,095.234,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Suns30c86,223$25,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,510.8216752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Suns29c82,847$23,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,899.211,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Spurs71c77,407$55,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,095.456657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs71c73,703$52,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,388.721,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Spurs72c69,575$49,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,576.871,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Spurs71c61,453$43,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,662.3392753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Suns29c55,000$15,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,95037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Spurs71c53,963$38,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,412.1251354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Spurs72c50,618$36,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,191.0610459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs70c47,669$33,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,071.719,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Suns29c44,838$12,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,976.8814358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs71c35,975$25,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,369.561,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs70c35,819$25,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,745.642,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Spurs71c34,900$24,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1213759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Suns29c33,733$9,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,615.2420551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Spurs72c32,850$23,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,19813357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs72c32,666$23,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,267.964,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Spurs71c31,032$22,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.2814663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns29c30,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,60019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Suns29c30,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,699.967941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Spurs72c27,778$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,777.7820758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…37bbbacked Suns29c25,984$7,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,535.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Suns0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Spurs72c22,222$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,222.165349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Spurs73c22,011$15,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,051.413063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Spurs72c21,570$15,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,039.628554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Spurs71c21,301$15,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,273.822,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spurs71c20,290$14,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,907.343,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Suns28c20,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Spurs71c19,269$13,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,586.9738148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spurs69c18,100$12,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,562.771,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Spurs71c17,484$12,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,070.423245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Spurs71c17,450$12,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,060.491,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Suns1c16,589$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9367911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Spurs71c16,000$11,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.8731445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Spurs71c15,000$10,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3501,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spurs73c14,917$10,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…d373backed Spurs72c14,509$10,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,062.482147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Spurs71c14,000$10,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.9818045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Spurs72c13,906$10,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,893.564259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Spurs72c12,825$9,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,534.7559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Spurs70c12,171$8,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.7748956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde27…5cb1backed Suns0c11,851$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242020%4 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Spurs73c11,386$8,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.2752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs76c11,356$8,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,731.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns10c11,227$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.674,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns28c11,113$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.611,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Spurs71c10,077$7,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.4772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Suns28c9,674$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,708.5916339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs70c9,211$6,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.332,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Spurs71c9,128$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.213348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4001…995ebacked Suns29c9,125$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Suns28c8,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24010236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Spurs71c8,000$5,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,29021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Suns29c8,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…7aa9backed Suns29c7,764$2,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Suns29c7,517$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.977365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Spurs71c7,443$5,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.5738251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Spurs72c7,242$5,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.7419958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f8…44acbacked Suns29c7,149$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Spurs74c7,077$5,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.0819954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns28c7,055$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0101,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Spurs71c7,042$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.2529347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Spurs71c6,910$4,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.0655346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Suns20c6,500$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2859117.6%16 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns7c6,172$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.661,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Spurs71c5,564$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.4671547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x265d…4d28backed Suns27c5,185$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Suns1c5,161$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9842348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs76c5,156$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.991,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4048…b297backed Suns29c5,081$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0a…b160backed Spurs73c5,068$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns28c5,050$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.991,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Suns30c5,000$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.2450653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Suns29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45026640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18a…d11bbacked Spurs73c4,932$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Spurs73c4,919$3,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.074862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8412…0cafbacked Suns29c4,846$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Spurs72c4,835$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.9211361.9%70 W · 43 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…eedfbacked Suns27c4,815$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Suns30c4,800$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43489050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Spurs71c4,725$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.917653.4%94 W · 82 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns7c4,702$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.683,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Spurs71c4,675$3,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.876848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Suns5c4,515$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8928616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns28c4,500$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c6…cf0cbacked Suns29c4,481$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Spurs71c4,306$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.638748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Suns29c4,282$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd30…bf5ebacked Suns29c4,225$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.