NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f29e8c4ad0ef832ff11a85c7c9bad779f91476bbdb10c2b03419ff89b6ab354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 52c | 3,844$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 2,269$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.96 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,238$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.49 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 50c | 1,322$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.91 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,234$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 49c | 979.59$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.59 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 935.91$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.67 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 910.12$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.27 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 901.12$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 50c | 605.91$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.96 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 596.97$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.43 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 49c | 587.86$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.05 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…722ebacked Under | 50c | 216$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 99.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 96.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…7af9backed Under | 51c | 85.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 62.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 62c | 39.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 54c | 36.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…246fbacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…ba8ebacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…9503backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5this page
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Suns vs. SpursSpurs won
- Suns vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.