NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2853bb7c3e0e4b958fae275409d1d38dbd2adf2856f731062efa4a23f8c442c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Cavaliers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Cavaliers | 42c | 3,096$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.29 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 58c | 2,913$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets | 61c | 2,300$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 72c | 677.97$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 652.22$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.91 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Nuggets | 21c | 626.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.82 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Nuggets | 58c | 458.62$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Cavaliers | 48c | 425.47$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Cavaliers | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 303.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets | 50c | 287$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Cavaliers | 44c | 261.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Nuggets | 71c | 251.54$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nuggets | 57c | 233.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Nuggets | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Nuggets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 168 | 53%89 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Nuggets | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Cavaliers | 56c | 131.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Nuggets | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…cd31backed Cavaliers | 65c | 127.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…8acabacked Nuggets | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…749fbacked Cavaliers | 79c | 60.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Nuggets | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…0607backed Cavaliers | 79c | 52.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Nuggets | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…8405backed Cavaliers | 79c | 41.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Cavaliers | 79c | 39.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3296backed Cavaliers | 70c | 37.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5ec6backed Cavaliers | 79c | 34.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…f5e5backed Cavaliers | 79c | 32.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Nuggets | 61c | 29.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522e…02e7backed Cavaliers | 79c | 29.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…8edbbacked Cavaliers | 79c | 29.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…e0e4backed Cavaliers | 79c | 27.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Cavaliers | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Cavaliers | 79c | 17.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…1288backed Cavaliers | 79c | 14.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…bc9bbacked Cavaliers | 79c | 12.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. NuggetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.