NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2725ab1be44848d66b9db1648aae7650b832b5749387147c60dc26bd65004c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 55c | 2,555$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.75 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 1,611$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 922.12$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 20c | 461.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 75c | 329.01$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 322.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 305.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 66c | 222.66$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 31c | 175.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 64c | 172.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 120.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed Over | 55c | 92.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Over | 61c | 82.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 75.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Under | 30c | 50.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 65c | 50.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1e98backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 35c | 39.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 27c | 39.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 33c | 35.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Under | 47c | 33.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…4cd6backed Over | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6263…f8e1backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 37c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Over | 72c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 66c | 26.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b7…21ddbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…4711backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…6cc7backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. NuggetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.