NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7011ae98cbeb335e5a8a554d7b4a8586ad3351435eb6669854dc3203d67e55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 44c | 36,501$16,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,440.32 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Over | 52c | 32,762$17,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,141.49 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 56c | 22,327$12,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,503.12 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 57c | 17,996$10,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,170.34 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 9,982$4,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,368.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 7,642$3,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,028.31 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 48c | 6,245$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.4 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Under | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.04 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 42c | 3,985$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.09 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 3,320$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 46c | 2,484$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.19 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Under | 47c | 2,442$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.91 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 2,425$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.85 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 34c | 2,071$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.75 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 49c | 1,501$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.33 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 45c | 1,357$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.32 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 810.16$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 621.88$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.6 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 45c | 602.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.64 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 287.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Under | 48c | 263.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 197.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Under | 47c | 193.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…d5a6backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Over | 56c | 171.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 48c | 162.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 158.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d670backed Under | 14c | 122.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…815bbacked Over | 77c | 104.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb597…2949backed Under | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…5667backed Over | 76c | 88.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Over | 68c | 84.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Over | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 66c | 68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 53c | 66.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Under | 50c | 54.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 57c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…c377backed Under | 33c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 42c | 30.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 39c | 29.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 48c | 28.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 26.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 43c | 26.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 62c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. NuggetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.