NBA · resolved market
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30d16f0178b05166c3165b3d7dc55570c1070f8e88a79b6c413969537ead82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 57c | 2,183$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.46 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…fabfbacked No | 56c | 1,008$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.69 | 76 | 73.7%56 W · 20 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Yes | 43c | 936.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 44c | 914.6$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.29 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Yes | 46c | 584.57$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.61 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Yes | 40c | 498.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.85 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c0e9backed Yes | 41c | 492.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 59c | 269.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Yes | 54c | 246.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 57c | 204.34$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…db59backed Yes | 44c | 169.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…6c11backed Yes | 39c | 128.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed No | 46c | 124.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed No | 46c | 122.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…f8f5backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…02b7backed Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7034backed Yes | 44c | 63.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 53c | 59.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…9404backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 45c | 49.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e5…292fbacked Yes | 43c | 40.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. NuggetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.