TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,881 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Under40c2,500$1,000 inLost-$999.9993148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under44c1,759$774 inLost-$774.0924744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over56c1,705$953 inWon+$751.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over60c1,459$875 inWon+$584.664,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Over64c1,009$645 inWon+$364.475642.9%24 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over60c640$384 inWon+$25632450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under37c637.58$236 inLost-$235.93,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under34c308.5$105 inLost-$104.891,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over62c211$130 inWon+$80.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64dd…c377backed Under34c122$41 inLost-$40.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over60c100$60 inWon+$401,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under39c94.52$37 inLost-$37.025,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…d308backed Over56c89.29$50 inWon+$39.2912464.5%80 W · 44 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under41c70.48$29 inLost-$28.92,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under45c61.16$28 inLost-$27.61,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Over62c48.39$30 inWon+$18.397159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under38c48.38$18 inLost-$18.311,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc766…c4d9backed Over60c42.3$25 inWon+$16.921546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under35c35.76$13 inLost-$12.5250841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf1…0b3dbacked Over60c30$18 inWon+$123754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over60c26.02$16 inWon+$10.4119051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over62c23.82$15 inWon+$8.9640849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Over59c23.52$14 inWon+$9.692147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+27.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.