NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61b9d27b9fb601c53122c8e368d81954d6832019af14e1a6905a183e16cd3607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Cavaliers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Nuggets | 56c | 481.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…7155backed Nuggets | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…5432backed Cavaliers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Cavaliers | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Cavaliers | 50c | 101.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19e6…a14dbacked Nuggets | 59c | 75.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…cb96backed Cavaliers | 50c | 72.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…47e0backed Nuggets | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f94…c756backed Nuggets | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Nuggets | 55c | 45.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…01a1backed Cavaliers | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…d1d7backed Nuggets | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…8d8dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b444backed Cavaliers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d56backed Cavaliers | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6831…08b7backed Cavaliers | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…c1f6backed Nuggets | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…e1dcbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Nuggets | 50c | 26.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Nuggets | 50c | 26.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…e404backed Nuggets | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Nuggets | 78c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Nuggets | 50c | 25.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf1…8594backed Cavaliers | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…08fbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca0a…4cfcbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…8640backed Nuggets | 50c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Cavaliers vs. NuggetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.