NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d6d92ea4cf0c1237e7156d7003063700053c19359e72a40eff145f9a1234a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $261,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2eb…562dbacked Over | 51c | 153,855$79,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,025.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 107,748$52,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,951.64 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 49,080$23,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,573.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 52c | 36,227$18,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,838.02 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 12,500$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 9,356$4,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.14 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 7,293$3,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…5667backed Over | 1c | 5,069$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 48c | 3,457$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.41 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 47c | 2,121$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.13 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 45c | 1,635$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.27 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 1,500$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 48c | 1,426$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.43 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…582dbacked Under | 27c | 899.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 590.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.7 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Under | 45c | 569.26$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.09 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Over | 8c | 557.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Under | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 304.08$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Under | 50c | 195.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 36c | 119.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 48c | 119.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Under | 52c | 115.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 50c | 107.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 50c | 107.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb597…2949backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 56c | 96.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 54c | 93.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 16c | 75.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…815bbacked Over | 67c | 65.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 55.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Over | 69c | 51.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…c5dbbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…3fb3backed Under | 58c | 41.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 55c | 36.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…fe4fbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 48c | 29.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 48c | 28.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…222bbacked Under | 50c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 182 | 50%91 W · 91 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 50c | 21.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. NuggetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.